Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Athletic Club v Atlético de Madrid · La Liga · Saturday 5 September at 15:15 · 180 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Juan MussoGKAtlético de Madrid~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.09/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.55/90 over 10 apps → model prices 3.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jan OblakGKAtlético de Madrid~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.09/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.41/90 over 66 apps → model prices 2.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Unai SimónGKAthletic Club~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.55/90 over 58 apps → model prices 2.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gorka GuruzetaFWDAthletic Club~59 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.93/90 over 58 apps → model prices 3.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.86/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iñaki WilliamsFWDAthletic Club~74 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.28/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nico WilliamsFWDAthletic Club~68 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.53/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.40/90 over 50 apps → model prices 2.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oihan SancetMIDAthletic Club~60 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.67/90 over 49 apps → model prices 2.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alexander SørlothFWDAtlético de Madrid~51 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.64/90 over 50 apps → model prices 2.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álex BerenguerFWDAthletic Club~68 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.37/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.93/90 over 58 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Julián AlvarezFWDAtlético de Madrid~67 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.53/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.63/90 over 60 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iñigo Ruiz de GalarretaMIDAthletic Club~62 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.30/90 over 56 apps → model prices 2.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.41/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giuliano SimeoneFWDAtlético de Madrid~64 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.82/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.34/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Johnny CardosoMIDAtlético de Madrid~60 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.04/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikel JauregizarMIDAthletic Club~73 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.03/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maroan SannadiFWDAthletic Club~40 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.84/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.16/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.38/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Beñat PradosMIDAthletic Club~57 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.06/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ademola LookmanFWDAtlético de Madrid~52 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~61 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.13/90 over 9 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Clément LengletDEF~80 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alejandro RegoMIDAthletic Club~44 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.53/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álex BaenaFWDAtlético de Madrid~58 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.60/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.13/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matteo RuggeriDEFAtlético de Madrid~68 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.21/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álvaro DjalóFWDAthletic Club~39 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~59 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.58/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.37/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.06/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robin Le NormandDEFAtlético de Madrid~72 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.40/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo BarriosMIDAtlético de Madrid~74 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.15/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dani VivianDEFAthletic Club~82 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.62/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aitor ParedesDEFAthletic Club~82 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Obed VargasMIDAtlético de Madrid~62 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.40/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antoine GriezmannFWD~55 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.88/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.33/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc PubillDEFAtlético de Madrid~73 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nico SerranoFWDAthletic Club~24 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~24 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.11/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.61/90 over 5 apps → model prices 3.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andoni GorosabelDEFAthletic Club~65 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.16/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yuri BerchicheDEFAthletic Club~77 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.02/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcos LlorenteDEFAtlético de Madrid~76 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jesús AresoDEFAthletic Club~58 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.22/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José María GiménezDEFAtlético de Madrid~74 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robert NavarroFWDAthletic Club~41 min · starts 31%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 31% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.11/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iñigo LekueDEF~51 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.07/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.21/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thiago AlmadaFWDAtlético de Madrid~49 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
KokeMIDAtlético de Madrid~63 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adama BoiroDEFAthletic Club~60 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yeray ÁlvarezDEFAthletic Club~82 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dávid HanckoDEFAtlético de Madrid~81 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.15/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikel VesgaMIDAthletic Club~30 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Urko IzetaFWD~14 min · starts 8%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~14 minutes: starts 8% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 1 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.16/90 over 1 apps → model prices 3.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.58/90 over 1 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 1 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aymeric LaporteDEFAthletic Club~82 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.40/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.62/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nahuel MolinaDEFAtlético de Madrid~52 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giacomo RaspadoriFWD~19 min · starts 8%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 8% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.13/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 2 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 2 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.