Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Manchester City v AFC Bournemouth · Premier League · Sunday 23 August at 14:00 · 189 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Erling HålandFWDManchester City~87 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.70/90 over 65 apps → model prices 3.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Đorđe PetrovićGKAFC Bournemouth~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.05/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.87/90 over 38 apps → model prices 3.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gianluigi DonnarummaGKManchester City~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.29/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Omar MarmoushFWDManchester City~51 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 4.09/90 over 24 apps → model prices 3.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.50/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antoine SemenyoFWDManchester City~83 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.80/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.93/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Philip FodenMIDManchester City
Mathis Ryan CherkiMIDManchester City~54 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.42/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.56/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francisco Evanilson de Lima BarbosaFWDAFC Bournemouth~76 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.53/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.59/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jeremy DokuFWDManchester City
Sávio Moreira de OliveiraFWDManchester City
Tijjani ReijndersMIDManchester City~58 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.30/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcus TavernierMIDAFC Bournemouth~74 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.40/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.16/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tyler AdamsMIDAFC Bournemouth~71 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.94/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rayan RochaFWDAFC Bournemouth~75 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.67/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.18/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rodrigo Hernández CascanteMIDManchester City~66 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.81/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mateo KovačićMIDManchester City~63 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.79/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
A. ScottMIDAFC Bournemouth~63 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.40/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.09/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eli Junior KroupiFWDAFC Bournemouth~51 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.52/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis CookMIDAFC Bournemouth~72 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc GuehiDEFManchester City~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Justin KluivertMIDAFC Bournemouth
Nico O'ReillyDEFManchester City~74 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.36/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan ChristieMIDAFC Bournemouth~57 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.37/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.54/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.60/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rico LewisDEFManchester City~59 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.61/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolás González IglesiasMIDManchester City~65 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.86/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.52/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joško GvardiolDEFManchester City~85 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.12/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrien TruffertDEFAFC Bournemouth~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack GrealishFWDManchester City~36 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.50/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.67/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.99/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David BrooksFWDAFC Bournemouth~36 min · starts 37%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 37% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.63/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matheus Luiz NunesDEFManchester City~76 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.30/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rayan Aït NouriDEFManchester City~57 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.03/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam SmithDEFAFC Bournemouth~57 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.71/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.11/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amine AdliFWDAFC Bournemouth~35 min · starts 32%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 32% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.58/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.97/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.31/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Julian AraujoDEFAFC Bournemouth~42 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Abdukodir KhusanovDEFManchester City~72 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.81/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James HillDEFAFC Bournemouth~66 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rúben Santos Gato Alves DiasDEFManchester City~83 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bafodé DiakitéDEFAFC Bournemouth~71 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~5 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.07/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.57/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Enes ÜnalFWDAFC Bournemouth~14 min · starts 5%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~14 minutes: starts 5% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.28/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.28/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.42/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.68/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.57/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel JebbisonFWDAFC Bournemouth
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.