Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
FC Köln v TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga · Saturday 29 August at 14:30 · 193 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Oliver BaumannGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.98/90 over 62 apps → model prices 3.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marvin SchwäbeGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.79/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jakub KamińskiFWD~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.65/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.00/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.72/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.57/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Said El MalaFWD~58 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.10/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.20/90 over 34 apps → model prices 3.27/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.75/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ragnar AcheFWD~59 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.36/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.09/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.52/90 over 29 apps → model prices 3.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jan ThielmannFWD~60 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.52/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.93/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.55/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.53/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fisnik AsllaniFWD~72 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.81/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.42/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.12/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.53/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrej KramarićFWD~76 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.03/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.34/90 over 66 apps → model prices 2.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.29/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tim LemperleFWD~68 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.02/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.42/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.86/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marius BülterFWD~50 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.05/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.21/90 over 32 apps → model prices 3.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.00/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam HložekFWD~60 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.23/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.53/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.03/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Linton MainaFWD~42 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.32/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.38/90 over 24 apps → model prices 3.11/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.64/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eric MartelMID~83 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.44/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.68/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.73/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.83/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gian-Luca WaldschmidtFWD~28 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~61 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.07/90 over 24 apps → model prices 3.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.00/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.47/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tom KraußMID~69 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.75/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.07/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.72/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wouter BurgerMID~81 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.00/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.24/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leon AvdullahuMID~86 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ísak Bergmann JóhannessonMID~59 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.68/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessio Castro-MontesMID~48 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.33/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.80/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.29/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.82/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Grischa PrömelMID~55 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.78/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.29/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.97/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Denis HuseinbasicMID~49 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.93/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.81/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Max MoerstedtFWD~25 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 2.82/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 7.64/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.92/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.97/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.40/90 over 34 apps → model prices 3.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.85/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Albian HajdariDEF~81 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.65/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bernardo Fernandes da Silva JuniorDEF~80 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.02/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Arthur Largura ChavesDEF~81 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~36 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.37/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vladimír CoufalDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.46/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.43/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Youssoupha NiangFWD~19 min · starts 20%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 20% of his matches (~61 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 10 apps → model prices 3.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.25/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.61/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robin HranáčDEF~75 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.25/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alexander PrassMID~52 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.25/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.69/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.61/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.52/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ozan Muhammed KabakDEF~70 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.52/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.64/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rav van den BergDEF~81 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~41 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.81/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cenk ÖzkacarDEF~72 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.25/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.47/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jahmai Simpson-PuseyDEF~79 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.38/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.49/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.40/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sebastian Søraas SebulonsenDEF~81 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~35 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.40/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.40/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.11/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joël SchmiedDEF~68 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.69/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.44/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Valentin GendreyDEF~49 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.11/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.50/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.79/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.13/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Umut TohumcuMID~30 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.68/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.38/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.29/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ihlas BebouFWD~12 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~12 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.75/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.38/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.78/90 over 17 apps → model prices 3.39/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Florian KainzMID~19 min · starts 13%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 13% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.42/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.17/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.93/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Muhammed DamarMID~18 min · starts 13%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~18 minutes: starts 13% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 3.74/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.42/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.