Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Celta de Vigo v Athletic Club · La Liga · Sunday 30 August at 20:30 · 210 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Unai Simón MendibilGKAthletic Club~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.55/90 over 58 apps → model prices 2.93/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ionuț Andrei RaduGKCelta de Vigo~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.04/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iñaki Williams ArthuerFWDAthletic Club~74 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.19/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.86/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicholas Williams ArthuerFWDAthletic Club~68 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.01/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.72/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.54/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gorka Guruzeta RodríguezFWDAthletic Club~59 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.07/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.19/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.25/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.01/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 71 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Moriba Kourouma KouroumaMIDCelta de Vigo~67 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.41/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.88/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alejandro Berenguer RemiroFWDAthletic Club~68 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.37/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.78/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.87/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iago Aspas JuncalFWDCelta de Vigo~47 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.97/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.27/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.33/90 over 62 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ferran Jutlgà BlancFWDCelta de Vigo~55 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.14/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.61/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.64/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.52/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Borja Iglesias QuintasFWDCelta de Vigo~54 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.49/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.51/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.32/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo Durán FernándezFWDCelta de Vigo~50 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.97/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.68/90 over 57 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.45/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.53/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta EtxeberriaMIDAthletic Club~62 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.44/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.77/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikel Jauregizar AlbonigaMIDAthletic Club~73 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.66/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.09/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.38/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yuri Berchiche IzetaDEFAthletic Club~77 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.77/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.31/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hugo Álvarez AntúnezFWDCelta de Vigo~54 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.15/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.31/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.43/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Williot SwedbergFWDCelta de Vigo~43 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.72/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.37/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.70/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.49/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Benat Prados DíazMIDAthletic Club~57 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.57/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.93/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Miguel Román GonzálezMIDCelta de Vigo~69 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.76/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.49/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.91/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.52/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francisco José Beltrán PeinadoMID~70 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yoel Lago AmilDEFCelta de Vigo~78 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.05/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.38/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aitor Paredes CasamichanaDEFAthletic Club~82 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.40/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maroan Sannadi HarrouchFWDAthletic Club~40 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.89/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.53/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.72/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.21/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oihan Sancet TirapuMIDAthletic Club~60 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.47/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.96/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.48/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel Vivian MorenoDEFAthletic Club~82 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.63/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robert Navarro MuñozFWDAthletic Club~41 min · starts 31%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 31% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.73/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.54/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.62/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Damián Rodríguez SousaMIDCelta de Vigo~57 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.51/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yeray Álvarez LópezDEFAthletic Club~82 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.69/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álvaro Djaló Dias FernandesFWDAthletic Club~39 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~59 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.59/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.12/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.40/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.11/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alejandro Rego MoraMIDAthletic Club~44 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.44/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.40/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.69/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aymeric LaporteDEFAthletic Club~82 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.77/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.47/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.58/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcos Alonso MendozaDEFCelta de Vigo~86 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.83/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.07/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jones El-AbdellaouiFWDCelta de Vigo~30 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.39/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.23/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.16/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Javier Rodríguez GalianoDEFCelta de Vigo~74 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.16/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carl StarfeltDEFCelta de Vigo~80 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolás Serrano GaldeanoFWDAthletic Club~24 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~24 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.44/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 9.61/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.44/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.79/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andoni Gorosabel EspinosaDEFAthletic Club~65 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.21/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikel Vesga ArrutiMIDAthletic Club~30 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.53/90 over 48 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.31/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.47/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sergio Carreira VilariñoDEFCelta de Vigo~76 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adama Boiro BoiroDEFAthletic Club~60 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.86/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jesús Areso BlancoDEFAthletic Club~58 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.20/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.54/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos Domínguez CáceresDEFCelta de Vigo~66 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.65/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Javier Rueda GarcíaDEFCelta de Vigo~54 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.95/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.82/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Manuel Fernández ArroyoDEFCelta de Vigo~54 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.17/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.