Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Parma v Cagliari · Serie A · Saturday 22 August at 19:45 · 198 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Elia CaprileGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.93/90 over 56 apps → model prices 3.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.23/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zion SuzukiGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.93/90 over 57 apps → model prices 2.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.18/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.06/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edoardo CorviGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.65/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.29/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mateo Pellegrino CasalanguilaFWD~75 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.22/90 over 50 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.72/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.75/90 over 50 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.22/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gabriel Tadeu Strefezza RebelatoFWD~73 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~36 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.83/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.35/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.79/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.05/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sebastiano EspositoFWDCagliari~75 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.77/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.65/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.06/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.18/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zito André Sebastiao LuvumboFWD~51 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 4.69/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.26/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.28/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.00/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jacob OndrejkaFWD~43 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.57/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.50/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.32/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.88/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrian Bernabe GarciaMID~75 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~43 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.59/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.37/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.15/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.52/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gennaro BorrelliFWD~47 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 3.48/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.72/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.91/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.74/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mandela KeitaMID~72 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.43/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.58/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.37/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pontus AlmqvistFWD~37 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~64 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.95/90 over 42 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 42 apps → model prices 2.80/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.88/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Semih KılıçsoyFWD~44 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.45/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.69/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mariano TroiloDEF~78 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.75/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.48/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.93/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michel Ndary AdopoMID~75 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~36 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.82/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 73 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mattia FeliciFWD~42 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.44/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.82/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.08/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gabriele ZappaDEF~69 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.06/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yerry Fernando Mina GonzálezDEF~83 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.85/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sebastiano LupertoDEF~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.47/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Juan Martín Rodríguez CamejoDEF~77 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~7 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.12/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.20/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro DeiolaMID~59 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.47/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.67/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.67/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José Pedro da Silva Figueiredo FreitasDEF~74 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrian BenedyczakFWD~30 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.58/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.61/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.11/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro CircatiDEF~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.30/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.03/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lautaro Rodrigo ValentiDEF~81 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.61/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hans Nicolussi CavigliaMIDParma~58 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.80/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.46/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.67/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.41/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.68/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam ObertDEF~69 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.92/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.28/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sascha BritschgiDEF~72 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matteo PratiMIDCagliari~58 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.59/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.02/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Niakhate NdiayeDEF~71 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~39 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.24/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.56/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.72/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.47/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hernani Azevedo JúniorMID~48 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.50/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.72/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.97/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.25/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emanuele ValeriDEF~80 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.89/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.82/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Enrico Del PratoDEF~86 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~41 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.54/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Botond BaloghDEFParma~71 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.10/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.64/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oliver Sørensen JensenMID~54 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.53/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leonardo PavolettiFWD~17 min · starts 5%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~17 minutes: starts 5% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.83/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.82/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.07/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.94/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.93/90 for this match
Fouls: career 8.51/90 over 39 apps → model prices 4.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christian Nahuel OrdoñezMID~39 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.63/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.33/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nahuel EstévezMID~37 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.39/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.64/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.79/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Milan ĐurićFWD~16 min · starts 14%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~16 minutes: starts 14% of his matches (~64 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.63/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.89/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.79/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.42/90 over 21 apps → model prices 3.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mathias Fjörtoft LövikDEF~37 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.20/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.20/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Riyad IdrissiDEF~33 min · starts 17%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 17% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.72/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.48/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.72/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.