Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Venezia v Lecce · Serie A · Sunday 23 August at 17:30 · 208 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Wladimiro FalconeGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.08/90 over 76 apps → model prices 3.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.26/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 76 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Filip StankovicGK~86 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.07/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Saves: career 4.13/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ionuț Andrei RaduGKCelta de Vigo~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.04/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joel PohjanpaloFWD~81 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.68/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.14/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gaetano Pio OristanioMIDTorino~63 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.59/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.74/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.04/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.74/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessio ZerbinMIDFrosinone~84 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.57/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.98/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.01/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Santiago PierottiFWD~63 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.20/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.27/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Enrique Pérez MuñozMID~70 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.47/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.28/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.52/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lameck BandaFWD~50 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.62/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.86/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.04/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.04/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hans Nicolussi CavigliaMIDParma~82 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.52/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.26/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lassana CoulibalyMID~76 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.62/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
D. FilaFWD~50 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.24/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.22/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gianluca BusioMID~77 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.58/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.29/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jay IdzesDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.29/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fali CandéDEF~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Medon BerishaMID~54 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.47/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.17/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
John Yeboah ZamoraFWD~37 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.30/90 over 12 apps → model prices 3.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joseph Alfred DuncanMID~60 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.27/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.96/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikael Egill EllertssonMID~69 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Balthazar PierretMID~53 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.89/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.28/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nikola ŠtulićFWD~50 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.32/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.44/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.90/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mirko MarićFWD~35 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.51/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.54/90 over 5 apps → model prices 3.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jamil SiebertDEF~81 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.32/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Danilo Filipe Melo VeigaDEF~69 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.25/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.44/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ylber RamadaniMID~76 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.87/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oumar NgomMID~57 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.50/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.53/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francesco ZampanoMID~68 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonio CandelaDEF~72 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tiago Gabriel Coelho OliveiraDEF~85 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~35 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mohamed KabaMIDLecce
Christian GytkjærFWD~26 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~26 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.71/90 over 7 apps → model prices 3.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Omri GandelmanMID~51 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.29/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
K. GasparDEF~85 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.48/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giorgio AltareDEFVenezia~63 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.03/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.26/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Magnus AndersenMID~49 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.14/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.81/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gaby JeanDEF~61 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.06/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Issa DoumbiaMID~39 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.10/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.22/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Konan Ignace Jocelyn N’driFWD~22 min · starts 8%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~22 minutes: starts 8% of his matches (~52 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.10/90 over 12 apps → model prices 3.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marin SverkoDEF~70 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.67/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.25/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michael SvobodaDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~82 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.21/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ridgeciano HapsDEFVenezia~55 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.01/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joël Marcel SchingtienneDEF~70 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.08/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonino GalloDEF~84 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.30/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Corrie NdabaDEF
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.