Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
FC Bayern München v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga · Friday 28 August at 19:30 · 207 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Alexander NübelGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.85/90 over 68 apps → model prices 3.48/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harry KaneFWD~77 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.38/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.42/90 over 62 apps → model prices 3.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.68/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jonas UrbigGK~83 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~39 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.09/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.60/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luis Fernando Díaz MarulandaFWD~78 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~36 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.27/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.51/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.28/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michael OliseFWD~71 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.12/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.47/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.64/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.64/90 over 66 apps → model prices 2.96/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Manuel NeuerGK~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.07/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Saves: career 1.45/90 over 44 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Serge GnabryFWD~51 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.99/90 over 48 apps → model prices 3.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.72/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Deniz UndavFWD~71 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.81/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.54/90 over 56 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jamie LewelingFWD~69 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.69/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.81/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.76/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jamal MusialaMID~62 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.51/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.80/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.88/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ermedin DemirovićFWD~57 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.63/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.91/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.34/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.65/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joshua KimmichMID~83 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.37/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.09/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chris FührichFWD~56 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.38/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.23/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.20/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.00/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
João Maria Lobo Alves Palhinha GonçalvesMIDFC Bayern München~40 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.36/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.14/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.37/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.85/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tom BischofMID~50 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.14/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.61/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.97/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.89/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lennart KarlMID~49 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.79/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.13/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.22/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leon GoretzkaMID~58 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.60/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.54/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.40/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aleksandar PavlovićMID~65 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.61/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Badredine BouananiFWD~33 min · starts 36%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 36% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 12.17/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.09/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.85/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 3.32/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Angelo StillerMID~83 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.59/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.64/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tiago Barreiros de Melo TomásFWD~38 min · starts 37%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 37% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.36/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.14/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.33/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Atakan KarazorMID~75 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.40/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.18/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.70/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bilal El KhannousMID~65 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.55/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.66/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Julian ChabotDEF~79 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.35/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Min-Jae KimDEF~75 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~7 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.85/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.69/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Konrad LaimerDEF~64 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.07/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.46/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.42/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dayotchanculle UpamecanoDEF~81 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Finn JeltschDEF~65 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.97/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.14/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jonathan TahDEF~72 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.18/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José María Andrés BaixauliMID~52 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.46/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.44/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leonidas StergiouDEF~66 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~1 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.06/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nikolas NarteyMID~45 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.21/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.60/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.88/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maximilian MittelstädtDEF~74 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.00/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.41/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.24/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alphonso DaviesDEF~65 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.17/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.42/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sacha BoeyDEF~48 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.90/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.49/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.79/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josip StanisicDEF~68 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.40/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.25/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.28/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josha Mamadou Karaboue VagnomannDEF~65 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.35/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca Antony JaquezDEF~61 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.45/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hiroki ItoDEF~53 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.34/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lorenz AssignonDEF~46 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.84/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.76/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Raphaël Adelino José GuerreiroDEF~58 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.57/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.22/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.47/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ramon HendriksDEF~57 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.32/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.48/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pascal StenzelDEF~34 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.86/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.19/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.90/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.