Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Southampton v Millwall · Championship · Saturday 29 August at 15:00 · 257 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Maxime Teremoana CrocombeGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.39/90 over 23 apps → model prices 3.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aaron RamsdaleGKSouthampton~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Saves: career 4.10/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex McCarthyGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.17/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.25/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel PeretzGK~91 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~91 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~91 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.62/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gavin BazunuGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.20/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam ArmstrongFWD~67 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.98/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.61/90 over 49 apps → model prices 2.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Camiel NeghliFWD~71 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.65/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.40/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.73/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mihailo IvanovićFWD~63 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.08/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.22/90 over 83 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 83 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.71/90 over 83 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 83 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leonardo Weschenfelder-ScienzaMID~66 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.16/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.94/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.63/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh CoburnFWD~66 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.94/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.00/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.96/90 over 48 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.15/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cyle LarinFWDSouthampton~53 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.94/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.31/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana BalloFWD~60 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.10/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.03/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.32/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.47/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Finn AzazMID~74 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.86/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.83/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan FraserFWD~50 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.26/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.55/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Femi AzeezMID~69 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.78/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.04/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.74/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 71 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Raees Bangura-WilliamsFWD~44 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.45/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.60/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.05/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.37/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cameron ArcherFWD~38 min · starts 37%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 37% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.62/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.74/90 over 65 apps → model prices 2.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Caspar JanderMID~78 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.16/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.03/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ross StewartFWD~38 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.08/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.49/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.10/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Flynn DownesMID~76 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.63/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.28/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.40/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aidomo EmakhuFWD~36 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.42/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.48/90 over 52 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.28/90 over 52 apps → model prices 2.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.11/90 over 52 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Casper De NorreMID~78 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 77 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 77 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.21/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 77 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Macaulay LangstaffFWD~38 min · starts 36%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 36% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.74/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.47/90 over 72 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.01/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.63/90 over 72 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.26/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tom FellowsMID~60 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.46/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.31/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tristan CramaDEF~87 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Billy MitchellMID~62 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.02/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kuryu MatsukiMID~51 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.28/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.68/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.66/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jake CooperDEF~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.31/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.63/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 83 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Welington Damascena SantosDEF~51 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.56/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.75/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.51/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.82/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Derek Mazou-SackoMID~51 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.28/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.28/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.60/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alfie DoughtyMID~53 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.64/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.22/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luke CundleMID~45 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.08/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.17/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.36/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.53/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan ManningDEF~71 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.18/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.33/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan LeonardDEF~73 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.47/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Japhet TangangaDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.00/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuel EdozieFWD~25 min · starts 13%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 13% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.53/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.59/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.54/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.86/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Taylor Harwood-BellisDEF~87 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 77 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe AriboMID~55 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Damion DownsFWDSouthampton~25 min · starts 9%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 9% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.39/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.86/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.11/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joshua QuarshieDEF~73 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~2 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.16/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.47/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe BryanDEF~69 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.77/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Caleb TaylorDEF~80 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.14/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.61/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cameron BraggMID~40 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.06/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.82/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.19/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.46/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zak Norton SturgeDEF~63 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.03/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack StephensDEF~80 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.40/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nathan Wood-GordonDEF~72 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.61/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tom WatsonFWD~20 min · starts 17%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~20 minutes: starts 17% of his matches (~54 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.88/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.24/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.64/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.31/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.66/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James BreeDEF~74 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Barry BannanMID~36 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.57/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.33/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.17/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel KellyMID~35 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.82/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.41/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.39/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
William SmallboneMID~33 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.40/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.86/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.28/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ronnie EdwardsDEF~57 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~5 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yukinari SugawaraDEFSouthampton~51 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.90/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.37/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.53/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wes HardingDEF~30 min · starts 31%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 31% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.