Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
West Bromwich Albion v Charlton Athletic · Championship · Wednesday 2 September at 19:45 · 152 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Thomas KaminskiGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.15/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.84/90 over 37 apps → model prices 3.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Isaac PriceMID~77 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.29/90 over 56 apps → model prices 2.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikey JohnstonFWD~59 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.83/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.64/90 over 53 apps → model prices 3.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Max O'LearyGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.33/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.10/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe WildsmithGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.24/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Saves: career 1.71/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aune HeggebøFWD~69 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.49/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.97/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh MajaFWDWest Bromwich Albion~55 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.02/90 over 44 apps → model prices 2.81/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sonny CareyMID~74 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.07/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.41/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Conor CoventryMID~73 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.72/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tom FellowsMID~65 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.31/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex MowattMID~75 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.44/90 over 74 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.91/90 over 74 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 74 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Greg DochertyMID~76 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.02/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jayson MolumbyMID~75 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.98/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.39/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amari'i BellDEF~80 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.12/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.48/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tyreece CampbellFWD~66 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.83/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kayne RamsayDEF~81 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lloyd JonesDEF~86 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~1 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daryl Enyinnaya DikeFWD~27 min · starts 20%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 20% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.96/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.77/90 over 8 apps → model prices 3.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James BreeDEF~80 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.40/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Karoy AndersonMID~54 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Miles LeaburnFWD~53 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.49/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.54/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.64/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Callum StylesDEF~80 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.77/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nat PhillipsDEF~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.92/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luke BerryMID~31 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.83/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.37/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.20/90 over 6 apps → model prices 2.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jamaldeen Jimoh-AlobaMID~35 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.04/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.02/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ousmane DiakitéMID~56 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.36/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.95/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rob ApterFWD~45 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.11/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.53/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Reece BurkeDEF~56 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matty GoddenFWD~27 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.60/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Charlie KelmanFWD~47 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.51/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Krystian BielikDEF~56 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.71/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
George CampbellDEF~79 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.83/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.77/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Torbjørn HeggemDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chris MephamDEF~77 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.31/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luke ChambersDEF~69 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harvey KnibbsMID~25 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~56 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.78/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.18/90 over 9 apps → model prices 2.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Macaulay GillespheyDEF~59 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.18/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.49/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alfie GilchristDEF~51 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ibrahim FullahMID~32 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe Rankin-CostelloDEF~35 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.38/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.