Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Juventus v Parma · Serie A · Saturday 29 August at 19:45 · 224 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Zion SuzukiGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.18/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.05/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.92/90 over 57 apps → model prices 3.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edoardo CorviGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.29/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.65/90 over 17 apps → model prices 3.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dušan VlahovićFWD~57 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.99/90 over 34 apps → model prices 4.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.09/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kenan YildizFWD~74 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.69/90 over 64 apps → model prices 3.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.72/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francisco Fernandes ConceiçãoFWD~61 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.92/90 over 43 apps → model prices 3.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.88/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Randal Kolo MuaniFWDJuventus
Mattia PerinGK~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mateo Pellegrino CasalanguilaFWD~75 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.27/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.10/90 over 47 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.78/90 over 47 apps → model prices 2.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michele Di GregorioGK~89 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.13/90 over 63 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolás Iván GonzálezFWDJuventus~64 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.78/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.47/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gabriel Tadeu Strefezza RebelatoFWD~73 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~36 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.62/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.48/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrian Bernabe GarciaMID~75 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~43 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.77/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.21/90 over 49 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jonathan DavidFWD~51 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.37/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.37/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.97/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jeremie BogaFWDJuventus~45 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.46/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.62/90 over 8 apps → model prices 3.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Manuel LocatelliMID~81 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.10/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.56/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Khéphren Thuram-UlienMID~68 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.63/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.54/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mandela KeitaMID~72 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.40/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.72/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Teun KoopmeinersMID~63 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.64/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.54/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lloyd KellyDEF
Lois OpendaFWD
Weston McKennieMID~76 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.53/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.16/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hernani Azevedo JúniorMID~48 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.67/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.18/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.31/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mariano TroiloDEF~78 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Niakhate NdiayeDEF~71 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~39 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.48/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.72/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.56/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.44/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lautaro Rodrigo ValentiDEF~81 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jacob OndrejkaFWD~43 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.49/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.60/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gleison Bremer Silva NascimentoDEF~85 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.87/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pierre Kalulu KyatengwaDEF~85 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.32/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro CircatiDEF~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.28/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edon ZhegrovaFWD
Andrea CambiasoDEF~73 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sascha BritschgiDEF
Federico GattiDEF~64 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.09/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emanuele ValeriDEF~80 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.83/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.86/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christian Nahuel OrdoñezMID~39 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.52/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pontus AlmqvistFWD~37 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~64 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.52/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.59/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oliver Sørensen JensenMID~54 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.69/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Botond BaloghDEFParma~71 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.14/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hans Nicolussi CavigliaMIDParma~58 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.52/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.26/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fabio MirettiMID~26 min · starts 22%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~26 minutes: starts 22% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 6 apps → model prices 2.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 6 apps → model prices 2.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.43/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Juan David Cabal MurilloDEF~39 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.41/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrian BenedyczakFWD~30 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.20/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.54/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Enrico Del PratoDEF~86 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~41 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Douglas Luiz Soares de PauloMIDJuventus
Nahuel EstévezMID~37 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.96/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Filip KostićMID~26 min · starts 22%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~26 minutes: starts 22% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.74/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.16/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.58/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Milan ĐurićFWD~16 min · starts 14%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~16 minutes: starts 14% of his matches (~64 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.67/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.38/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.03/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mathias Fjörtoft LövikDEF~37 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.18/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.