Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Real Madrid v Málaga · La Liga · Sunday 30 August at 16:00 · 101 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Kylian Mbappé LottinFWDReal Madrid~85 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.33/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.64/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.02/90 over 65 apps → model prices 4.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira JúniorFWDReal Madrid~77 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.21/90 over 66 apps → model prices 3.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.31/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.76/90 over 66 apps → model prices 2.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andriy LuninGKReal Madrid~90 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~90 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.07/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.07/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thibaut CourtoisGKReal Madrid~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.39/90 over 62 apps → model prices 2.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.06/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rodrygo Silva de GoesFWDReal Madrid~53 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.68/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.09/90 over 49 apps → model prices 3.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.03/90 over 49 apps → model prices 2.43/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.15/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Brahim Abdelkader DiazFWDReal Madrid~43 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.24/90 over 61 apps → model prices 3.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.60/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.78/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.03/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jude BellinghamMIDReal Madrid~75 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.25/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.06/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.35/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Federico Santiago Valverde DipettaMIDReal Madrid~84 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.68/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.46/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.62/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eduardo CamavingaMIDReal Madrid~55 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.19/90 over 48 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.02/90 over 48 apps → model prices 2.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aurélien TchouaméniMIDReal Madrid~82 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.04/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.83/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Arda GulerMIDReal Madrid~54 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.79/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.89/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.37/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.27/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thiago Pitarch PinarMIDReal Madrid~60 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.86/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.89/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel Ceballos FernándezMID~50 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.17/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.13/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.46/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.04/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álvaro CarrerasDEFReal Madrid~83 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~2 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.32/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Éder Gabriel MilitãoDEFReal Madrid~74 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.86/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.53/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dean Donny HuijsenDEFReal Madrid~73 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.85/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonio RüdigerDEFReal Madrid~81 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.83/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Endrick Felipe Moreira de SousaFWDReal Madrid~18 min · starts 13%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~18 minutes: starts 13% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 5.67/90 over 23 apps → model prices 5.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.64/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.98/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.96/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.29/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Raúl Asencio del RosarioDEFReal Madrid~74 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ferland MendyDEFReal Madrid~64 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.47/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Trent Alexander-ArnoldDEFReal Madrid~55 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.60/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.