Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Liverpool v Nottingham Forest · Premier League · Saturday 29 August at 12:30 · 194 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Matz SelsGKNottingham Forest~88 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.13/90 over 69 apps → model prices 3.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giorgi MamardashviliGKLiverpool~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.87/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.18/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mohamed Salah GhalyFWD~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.54/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.56/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alisson Ramsés BeckerGKLiverpool~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.51/90 over 54 apps → model prices 2.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cody Mathès GakpoFWDLiverpool~66 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.75/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.29/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.01/90 over 71 apps → model prices 2.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 71 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hugo EkitikeFWDLiverpool~65 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.37/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.85/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.74/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alexander IsakFWDLiverpool~50 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.07/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.32/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chris WoodFWDNottingham Forest~76 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.02/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.98/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Igor Jesus Maciel da CruzFWDNottingham Forest~63 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.05/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.88/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.45/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dominik SzoboszlaiMIDLiverpool~80 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.68/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.05/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.50/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Callum Hudson-OdoiFWDNottingham Forest~67 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.68/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.52/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.62/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alexis Mac AllisterMIDLiverpool~73 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.49/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.76/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.10/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Florian WirtzMIDLiverpool~72 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.07/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.39/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Omari Giraud-HutchinsonFWDNottingham Forest~54 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.69/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.84/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan GravenberchMIDLiverpool~85 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 73 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dan NdoyeFWDNottingham Forest~49 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.75/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.71/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.51/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Morgan Gibbs-WhiteMIDNottingham Forest~84 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.18/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.80/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 71 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ibrahim SangaréMIDNottingham Forest~65 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.21/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rio NgumohaFWDLiverpool~29 min · starts 26%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 26% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.61/90 over 19 apps → model prices 3.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.33/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.96/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolás Martín DomínguezMIDNottingham Forest~52 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.45/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.10/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.94/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Curtis JonesMIDLiverpool~54 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.83/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.86/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.65/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dilane BakwaFWDNottingham Forest~40 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.83/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.69/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.09/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.31/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Conor BradleyDEFLiverpool~50 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.60/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.51/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.59/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.19/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan YatesMIDNottingham Forest~45 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.09/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.37/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.55/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.37/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.59/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Neco WilliamsDEFNottingham Forest~81 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.51/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.45/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.65/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Murillo Santiago Costa dos SantosDEFNottingham Forest~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.24/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wataru EndoMIDLiverpool~16 min · starts 7%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~16 minutes: starts 7% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 3.21/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 13.42/90 over 28 apps → model prices 4.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 5.00/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.05/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Temitayo Olufisayo Olaoluwa AinaDEFNottingham Forest~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Felipe RodriguesDEFNottingham Forest~48 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.72/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.22/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.72/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolò SavonaDEFNottingham Forest~73 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.29/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nikola MilenkovićDEFNottingham Forest~89 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe GomezDEFLiverpool~37 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.49/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.77/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.69/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Virgil van DijkDEFLiverpool~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.31/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.48/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Taiwo Michael AwoniyiFWDNottingham Forest~21 min · starts 14%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~21 minutes: starts 14% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 4.55/90 over 43 apps → model prices 2.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.26/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.12/90 over 43 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.02/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Milos KerkezDEFLiverpool~67 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Federico ChiesaFWDLiverpool~14 min · starts 6%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~14 minutes: starts 6% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 4.71/90 over 32 apps → model prices 3.88/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.66/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.36/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.49/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.52/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Konstantinos TsimikasDEFLiverpool~46 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.66/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.81/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jeremie FrimpongDEFLiverpool~50 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.31/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.93/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.70/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James McateeMIDNottingham Forest~21 min · starts 14%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~21 minutes: starts 14% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.20/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.53/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.41/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harvey ElliotMIDLiverpool~20 min · starts 11%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~20 minutes: starts 11% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.44/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.29/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; all probabilities are estimates with sampling error of roughly ±1% at this iteration count.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.