Track record
Every bet the model publishes lands here, timestamped before kickoff, and is then scored against the closing line and the result. The log is append-only: no deletions, no retro-edits, no filtering that could hide a losing run. This page is the product betting on itself.
Calls published
11
since 11/08/2026
Average CLV
—
closing line value per call
Beat the close
—
0 calls with a closing price
Record
0 settled
graded from final match stats
Cumulative average CLV
one point per call, in kickoff order
The chart draws itself once at least two calls have reached their closing line — each line is captured at kickoff, so this appears with the first matchday, not a moment before. 11 published calls are waiting on kickoff now.
Every call, every state
Download CSV →The full log, newest first — open calls, calls awaiting settlement, and graded results, in one table. Nothing is filtered out.
| Kickoff | Call | Book | Price | Fair | Edge | Close | CLV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug, 15:00 | Conor CoventryShots 1.5+Charlton Athletic v Derby County | Bet365 | 5.00 | 4.09 | +22.3% | — | — | open |
| 16 Aug, 18:00 | Urko González de Zarate QuirósShots 2.5+Espanyol v Levante | Bet365 | 15.00 | 9.83 | +52.5% | — | — | open |
| 14 Aug, 20:00 | Sean McLoughlinFouls 1.5+Wolverhampton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers | Bet365 | 7.00 | 6.07 | +15.4% | — | — | open |
| 14 Aug, 20:00 | Sean McLoughlinShots 0.5+Wolverhampton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers | PaddyPower | 3.00 | 2.46 | +21.8% | — | — | open |
| 15 Aug, 12:30 | Andrew HughesShots 1.5+Bolton Wanderers v Preston North End | Bet365 | 8.00 | 6.62 | +20.8% | — | — | open |
| 15 Aug, 15:00 | Sorba ThomasShots 3.5+Stoke City v Swansea City | Bet365 | 7.00 | 5.89 | +18.8% | — | — | open |
| 15 Aug, 15:00 | Sorba ThomasShots on target 1.5+Stoke City v Swansea City | Bet365 | 6.50 | 5.19 | +25.2% | — | — | open |
| 15 Aug, 12:30 | Lewis Jack GibsonShots 0.5+Bolton Wanderers v Preston North End | Bet365 | 2.38 | 2.03 | +16.9% | — | — | open |
| 15 Aug, 15:00 | Joe WardShots 1.5+Charlton Athletic v Derby County | Bet365 | 5.00 | 4.27 | +17.0% | — | — | open |
| 15 Aug, 12:30 | Lewis Jack GibsonShots 1.5+Bolton Wanderers v Preston North End | Bet365 | 8.00 | 6.30 | +27.1% | — | — | open |
| 16 Aug, 18:00 | Urko González de Zarate QuirósShots 1.5+Espanyol v Levante | Bet365 | 5.00 | 4.01 | +24.5% | — | — | open |
How the scoring works
- Closing line value, not profit
- The headline metric is CLV: did the price we published beat the price the market closed at? Short-term profit is mostly variance — a fortnight of results says almost nothing either way — but consistently beating the close is the one measurable habit that predicts long-term returns. If this number is not positive over a real sample, the model does not work, and this page will show that.
- The prop caveat, stated up front
- Player prop markets are quoted over-only at the books we track — there is no under price to strip the bookmaker's margin against. Prop CLV therefore compares against the raw closing price, vig included. That slightly understates true closing value and is only comparable within a book. Match markets, which carry both sides, are de-vigged properly. Where the distinction matters, rows say which rule scored them.
- ROI comes with a health warning
- Results to advised stakes are shown once calls settle, because hiding them would be its own kind of edit. But ROI over small samples is noise wearing a percentage sign. Judge the model on CLV and sample size; judge ROI only when the sample has earned it.
- Every call carries its context
- Model version, edge at publish, price and book, confidence level and sample size are stored on the row. When the model changes, the decisions log records the version boundary — so old calls are always read against the model that made them, not the current one.
The full log is downloadable — every published call, every state, with timestamps, in one file. A record you cannot take away and check is a story, not a record.