Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Valencia v Real Betis · La Liga · Tuesday 25 August at 20:00 · 210 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Álvaro Vallés RosaGKReal Betis~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.14/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.14/90 over 28 apps → model prices 3.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stole DimitrievskiGKValencia~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.42/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Juan Camilo Hernández SuárezFWDReal Betis~80 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.88/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.13/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luis Jesús Rioja GonzálezFWDValencia~75 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.35/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.28/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 73 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antony Matheus dos SantosFWDReal Betis~78 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.36/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.08/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.84/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hugo Duro PeralesFWDValencia~62 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.70/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.09/90 over 67 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.83/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Abdessamad EzzalzouliFWDReal Betis~70 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.79/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.12/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.29/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Diego López NoguerolFWDValencia~63 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.37/90 over 72 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Arnaut Danjuma GroeneveldFWDValencia~54 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.28/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.95/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Umar Sadiq MesbahFWDValencia~48 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.52/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.78/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.86/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.74/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.47/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Guido RodríguezMIDValencia~82 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.94/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.51/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.99/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giovani Lo CelsoMIDReal Betis~58 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.88/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.47/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.77/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc Roca JunquéMIDReal Betis~68 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.93/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.35/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.82/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francisco Román Alarcón SuárezMIDReal Betis~59 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.00/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.60/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.25/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.66/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aitor Ruibal GarcíaFWDReal Betis~56 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.35/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.20/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.48/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
César Tárrega RequeniDEFValencia~85 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.47/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Javier Guerra MorenoMIDValencia~65 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.11/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.51/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.35/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo Fornals MallaMIDReal Betis~74 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.46/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.35/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José Luis García VayáMIDValencia~61 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.42/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sergi Altimira ClavellMID~63 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.62/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José Manuel Arias CopeteDEFValencia~84 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~46 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.73/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.38/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José Luis Gayá PeñaDEFValencia~78 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.49/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jesus Vazquez AlcaldeDEFValencia~44 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 4.05/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.12/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Domingos André Ribeiro AlmeidaMIDValencia~54 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.96/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.54/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.70/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Filip UgrinicMIDValencia~56 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.89/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.66/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Natan Bernardo de SouzaDEFReal Betis~78 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.03/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Héctor Junior Firpo AdamesDEFReal Betis~69 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.77/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.51/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luis Ezequiel ÁvilaFWD~36 min · starts 32%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 32% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.06/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.23/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.27/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.77/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.17/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dimitri FoulquierDEFValencia~73 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc Bartra AregallDEFReal Betis~82 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~38 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.61/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Diego Javier Llorente RíosDEFReal Betis~78 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Diego Valentín GómezDEFReal Betis~67 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.09/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rodrigo Riquelme RecheFWDReal Betis~32 min · starts 28%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 28% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.72/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.07/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.22/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.88/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nelson Alexander Deossa SuárezMIDReal Betis~37 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 6.73/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.72/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.97/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.24/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iker Losada AragundeFWDReal Betis~34 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.28/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Héctor Bellerín MorunoDEFReal Betis~67 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.22/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.23/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ricardo Iván Rodríguez ArayaDEF~64 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.29/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sergi Canós TenesFWDValencia~22 min · starts 12%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~22 minutes: starts 12% of his matches (~59 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 4.75/90 over 17 apps → model prices 3.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.46/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.23/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.51/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cédric BakambuFWD~27 min · starts 17%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 17% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.35/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.81/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.33/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.17/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mouctar DiakhabyDEFValencia~57 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.23/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.79/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel Raba AntolíFWDValencia~20 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~20 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~52 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.08/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.67/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.63/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.07/90 over 13 apps → model prices 3.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ángel Ortiz MonterreyDEFReal Betis~52 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo García FernándezFWDReal Betis~23 min · starts 11%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 11% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.25/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.48/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.43/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.59/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.