Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Newcastle United v AFC Bournemouth · Premier League · Saturday 5 September at 12:30 · 143 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Djordje PetrovicGKAFC Bournemouth~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.87/90 over 38 apps → model prices 3.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.05/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nick PopeGKNewcastle United~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.05/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.23/90 over 55 apps → model prices 2.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
EvanilsonFWDAFC Bournemouth~76 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.59/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.53/90 over 62 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harvey BarnesFWDNewcastle United~53 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.78/90 over 44 apps → model prices 3.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcus TavernierMIDAFC Bournemouth~74 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.16/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.40/90 over 54 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
JoelintonMIDNewcastle United~78 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.33/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.15/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.42/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
RayanFWDAFC Bournemouth~75 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.18/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.67/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tyler AdamsMIDAFC Bournemouth~71 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.94/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jacob MurphyFWDNewcastle United~59 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.82/90 over 54 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.36/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nick WoltemadeFWDNewcastle United~58 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.02/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.38/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eli KroupiFWDAFC Bournemouth~51 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.52/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex ScottMIDAFC Bournemouth~63 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.40/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.09/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Justin KluivertMIDAFC Bournemouth~61 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.10/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.62/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis HallDEFNewcastle United~77 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.32/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.72/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis CookMIDAFC Bournemouth~72 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan ChristieMIDAFC Bournemouth~57 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.37/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.60/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.54/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fabian SchärDEFNewcastle United~81 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.09/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.25/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrien TruffertDEFAFC Bournemouth~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David BrooksFWDAFC Bournemouth~36 min · starts 37%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 37% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.63/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yoane WissaFWDNewcastle United~27 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.47/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.74/90 over 4 apps → model prices 3.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tino LivramentoDEFNewcastle United~77 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.27/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.18/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dan BurnDEFNewcastle United~84 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
William OsulaFWDNewcastle United~25 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.90/90 over 9 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.17/90 over 9 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.44/90 over 9 apps → model prices 3.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anthony ElangaFWDNewcastle United~41 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.37/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.34/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.55/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam SmithDEFAFC Bournemouth~57 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.11/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.71/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Malick ThiawDEFNewcastle United~85 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe WillockMIDNewcastle United~37 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.42/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amine AdliFWDAFC Bournemouth~35 min · starts 32%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 32% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.58/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.97/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.31/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jacob RamseyMIDNewcastle United~52 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sven BotmanDEFNewcastle United~68 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Julián AraujoDEFAFC Bournemouth~42 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James HillDEFAFC Bournemouth~66 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis MileyMIDNewcastle United~49 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.80/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.34/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.29/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bafodé DiakitéDEFAFC Bournemouth~71 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~5 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.07/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.57/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Enes ÜnalFWDAFC Bournemouth~14 min · starts 5%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~14 minutes: starts 5% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.28/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.42/90 over 3 apps → model prices 3.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.28/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.57/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emil KrafthDEF~29 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.31/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel JebbisonFWDAFC Bournemouth~8 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~8 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 0 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.88/90 over 0 apps → model prices 3.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 0 apps → model prices 2.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 0 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.