Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Genoa v Como · Serie A · Friday 4 September at 19:45 · 186 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Jean ButezGK~89 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~45 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.42/90 over 57 apps → model prices 2.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nico PazMID~80 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.62/90 over 63 apps → model prices 3.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Assane DiaoFWD~73 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~42 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.20/90 over 31 apps → model prices 3.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.19/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicola LealiGK~87 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.18/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.89/90 over 50 apps → model prices 2.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Justin BijlowGK~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.90/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.06/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alieu FaderaFWDComo~59 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.33/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.93/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.13/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
VitinhaFWD~60 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.38/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.46/90 over 49 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.30/90 over 49 apps → model prices 2.54/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lorenzo ColomboFWDGenoa~62 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.88/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.38/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.67/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Morten ThorsbyMID~61 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.05/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.98/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Martin BaturinaMID~55 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.46/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anastasios DouvikasFWD~56 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.16/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.31/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Diego CarlosDEF~72 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.26/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.57/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edoardo GoldanigaDEF~75 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.47/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.59/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jesús RodríguezFWD~56 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.18/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.14/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
AmorimMID~50 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.69/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Junior MessiasFWD~41 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.50/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.43/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Morten FrendrupMID~87 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ruslan MalinovskyiMID~61 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.02/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.12/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.50/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leo ØstigårdDEFGenoa~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikael Egill EllertssonMID~77 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álex ValleDEF~71 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.43/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jayden AddaiFWD~57 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.40/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.83/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.83/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.56/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Máximo PerroneMID~74 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.56/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jacobo RamónDEF~86 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.40/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.26/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ivan SmolcicDEF~62 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.77/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Johan VásquezDEF~87 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.86/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 71 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alberto DossenaDEFComo~79 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.62/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.83/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ignace Van der BremptDEF~55 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.54/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maxence CaqueretMID~54 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.90/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Caleb EkubanFWD~31 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.90/90 over 18 apps → model prices 3.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.10/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.60/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aarón MartínDEF~76 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.47/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álvaro MorataFWDComo~36 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.91/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.82/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro VogliaccoDEFGenoa~59 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.37/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas Da CunhaMID~75 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.31/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alan MatturroDEFGenoa~69 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stefano SabelliDEF~60 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.26/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alberto MorenoDEF~69 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.03/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc Oliver KempfDEF~76 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jean OnanaMID~28 min · starts 17%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 17% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.46/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.67/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Brooke Norton-CuffyDEF~72 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.65/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro MarcandalliDEF~78 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.21/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Valentín CarboniMID~29 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.57/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.10/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.47/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sebastian OtoaDEF~63 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.28/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.02/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sergi RobertoMID~37 min · starts 39%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 39% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.47/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.03/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.60/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.03/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca MazzitelliMIDComo~33 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.54/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.85/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.54/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stefan PoschDEFComo~27 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolas KühnFWD~29 min · starts 26%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 26% of his matches (~64 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro GabrielloniFWDComo~11 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~11 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.65/90 over 1 apps → model prices 3.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.65/90 over 1 apps → model prices 3.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 1 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 1 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.