Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Leeds United v Brentford · Premier League · Sunday 30 August at 14:00 · 192 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Caoimhin KelleherGKBrentford~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.06/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.91/90 over 37 apps → model prices 3.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas Estella PerriGKLeeds United~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.38/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.06/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dominic Calvert-LewinFWDLeeds United~78 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.39/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel JamesFWDLeeds United~58 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.16/90 over 36 apps → model prices 3.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.69/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joël PiroeFWDLeeds United~54 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.88/90 over 38 apps → model prices 3.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Brenden AaronsonMIDLeeds United
Anton StachMIDLeeds United
Degnand Wilfried GnontoFWDLeeds United~43 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.00/90 over 32 apps → model prices 3.62/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.23/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.12/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Igor Thiago Nascimento RodriguesFWDBrentford~75 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.25/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.98/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Noah OkaforFWDLeeds United~56 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.02/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gabriel GudmundssonDEFLeeds United~83 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.89/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dango Aboubacar Faissal OuattaraFWDBrentford~71 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.40/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mateo Joseph Fernández RegatilloFWDLeeds United~33 min · starts 28%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 28% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 12 apps → model prices 3.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.51/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ethan AmpaduMIDLeeds United~85 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.62/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kevin SchadeFWDBrentford~69 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.47/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Largie RamazaniFWDLeeds United~28 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.30/90 over 6 apps → model prices 3.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ao TanakaMIDLeeds United~66 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.17/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.15/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lukas NmechaFWDLeeds United~35 min · starts 32%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 32% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.65/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jayden BogleDEFLeeds United~85 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 77 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.88/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 77 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 77 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michael Olabode KayodeDEFBrentford~77 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.26/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yehor YarmoliukMIDBrentford~61 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.51/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James JustinDEFLeeds United
Keane Lewis-PotterMIDBrentford~69 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.17/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.02/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vitaly JaneltMIDBrentford~65 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ilia GruevMIDLeeds United~66 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.18/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikkel DamsgaardMIDBrentford~70 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.15/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.61/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.89/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sean LongstaffMIDLeeds United~44 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nathan Michael CollinsDEFBrentford~88 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kristoffer Vassbakk AjerDEFBrentford~64 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jaka BijolDEFLeeds United~76 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rico HenryDEFBrentford~48 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.23/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sepp van den BergDEFBrentford~85 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mathias JensenMIDBrentford~52 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.01/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe RodonDEFLeeds United~88 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 80 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sebastiaan BornauwDEFLeeds United~37 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~7 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.15/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sam ByramDEFLeeds United~38 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.00/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ethan PinnockDEFBrentford~86 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.24/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.32/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aaron HickeyDEFBrentford~33 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.77/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fabio CarvalhoMIDBrentford~22 min · starts 16%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~22 minutes: starts 16% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.27/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yunus KonakMIDBrentford~4 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~4 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~4 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.75/90 over 0 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 0 apps → model prices 3.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 0 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.