Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Inter v Monza · Serie A · Saturday 22 August at 17:30 · 228 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Stefano TuratiGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.08/90 over 30 apps → model prices 3.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lautaro Javier MartínezFWD~78 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.47/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.70/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.98/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.74/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.76/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcus ThuramFWD~69 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.38/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.88/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.97/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.41/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josep Martínez RieraGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.10/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.05/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.20/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yann SommerGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.25/90 over 66 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.06/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francesco Pio EspositoFWD~45 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.43/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.22/90 over 35 apps → model prices 2.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.94/90 over 35 apps → model prices 3.10/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.20/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolò BarellaMID~75 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.65/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Keita Baldé DiaoFWD~59 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.63/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.44/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.77/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.73/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.38/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Milan ĐurićFWD~71 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~35 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 3.63/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.79/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.42/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hakan ÇalhanoğluMID~71 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.57/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.96/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dany Mota CarvalhoFWD~68 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.46/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.00/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.51/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Warren BondoMIDAC Milan~81 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.97/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Federico DimarcoDEF~72 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.16/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.56/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.48/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ange-Yoan BonnyFWD~34 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.05/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.34/90 over 33 apps → model prices 3.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.35/90 over 33 apps → model prices 3.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro BiancoMID~77 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.75/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.29/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.94/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gianluca CaprariFWD~49 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.49/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.67/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.37/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.60/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jean-Daniel Akpa AkproMID~69 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.49/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.79/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.21/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matteo PessinaMID~78 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~35 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.28/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.31/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Davide FrattesiMID~34 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 2.24/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 5.43/90 over 50 apps → model prices 2.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.62/90 over 50 apps → model prices 2.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel MaldiniMIDCagliari~66 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.59/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.57/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.10/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Henrikh MkhitaryanMID~64 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.59/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Armando IzzoDEF~82 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.21/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.22/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro BastoniDEF~77 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.69/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.56/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo Marí VillarDEF~86 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.53/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.02/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.21/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pedro Miguel Almeida Lopes PereiraDEF~77 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.65/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.26/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.34/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.84/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Manuel Obafemi AkanjiDEF~86 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrea CarboniDEF~85 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~51 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Piotr ZielińskiMID~51 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.90/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.53/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giorgos KiriakopoulosDEF~84 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~58 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.28/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.16/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.90/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Benjamin PavardDEFInter~70 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Petar SučićMID~53 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.49/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luis Henrique Tomaz de LimaMID~54 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.91/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.17/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francesco AcerbiDEF~75 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.32/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kristjan AsllaniMIDInter~46 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.13/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.40/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.31/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patrick CiurriaMID~53 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.32/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gaetano CastrovilliMID~50 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.44/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.08/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yann Aurel BisseckDEF~71 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.09/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matteo DarmianDEF~58 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.65/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuele BirindelliDEF~70 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.54/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca CaldirolaDEF~63 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.88/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stefan de VrijDEF~65 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.44/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Danilo D'AmbrosioDEF~55 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.43/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.54/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos Augusto Zopalato NevesDEF~54 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.20/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrea PetagnaFWD~25 min · starts 15%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 15% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.34/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andy DioufMID~25 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.47/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.08/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.08/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuele VignatoMID~27 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.28/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.53/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.08/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stefano SensiMID~23 min · starts 17%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 17% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.35/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.99/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.38/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.