Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Stoke City v Norwich City · Championship · Tuesday 1 September at 20:00 · 251 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Vladan KovačevićGKNorwich City~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.67/90 over 45 apps → model prices 2.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Viktor JohanssonGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.07/90 over 71 apps → model prices 2.59/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 71 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tommy SimkimGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.40/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sorba ThomasFWD~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.81/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.57/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.34/90 over 45 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joshua SargentFWD~81 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.35/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.96/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Million ManhoefFWD~68 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.44/90 over 79 apps → model prices 2.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 79 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.98/90 over 79 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 79 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 79 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 79 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ante CrnacFWD~67 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~35 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.27/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.43/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jovon MakamaFWDNorwich City~59 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.18/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.29/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lamine CisseFWD~50 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.44/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.74/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.36/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.05/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.03/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mohamed ToureFWDNorwich City~54 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~39 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.74/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.79/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kenny McLeanMID~87 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.89/90 over 76 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 76 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pelle Elkjær MattssonMIDNorwich City~83 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~39 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.03/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.80/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.11/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Milan SmitFWD~40 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.08/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis BakerMID~76 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.84/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.80/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sam GallagherFWD~41 min · starts 32%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 32% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.64/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.74/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.20/90 over 41 apps → model prices 2.48/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Róbert BoženíkFWD~40 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.80/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.26/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.50/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls: career 6.14/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tomáš RigoMID~54 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.22/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.32/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.40/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joon-Ho BaeMID~71 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 87 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.81/90 over 87 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.50/90 over 87 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.21/90 over 87 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 87 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 87 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ali AhmedMIDNorwich City~69 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.02/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.61/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.61/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tony SpringettFWD~38 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~55 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.83/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.67/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emiliano Marcondes Camargo HansenMID~60 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.64/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.69/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.04/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.53/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Steven N'Kemboanza Mike Christopher NzonziMID~46 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.21/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.57/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.37/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tatsuki SekoMID~61 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.07/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.95/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edmond-Paris MaghomaMIDNorwich City~59 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~36 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.68/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.77/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mirko TopićMIDNorwich City~65 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.39/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.59/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.95/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jacob WrightMID~50 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.10/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.28/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.38/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matěj JurásekFWD~33 min · starts 39%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 39% of his matches (~59 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.52/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.98/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.96/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mathias KvistgaardenFWDNorwich City~31 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~61 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.19/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.30/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.53/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eric Junior BocatDEF~66 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.88/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.64/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ben PearsonMID~56 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.50/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.13/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.51/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.02/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.53/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anis Ben SlimaneMID~61 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.20/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.74/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kellen FisherDEF~76 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.38/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 81 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mohammed Bosun LawalDEFStoke City~68 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.82/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.91/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harry DarlingDEFNorwich City~86 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~1 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.95/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.33/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jakov MedićDEFNorwich City~77 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.38/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emre TezgelFWDStoke City~25 min · starts 17%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 17% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.51/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.24/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.43/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.70/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oscar SchwartauMID~49 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 74 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.67/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.98/90 over 74 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 74 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José Angel Cordoba ChambersDEF~71 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.52/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
J. TchamadeuDEF~77 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.09/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Forson AmankwahMID~33 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.85/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.85/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.64/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Shane DuffyDEF~88 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.69/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Liam GibbsMID~48 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.44/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.04/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maksym TalovierovDEF~73 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.56/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.43/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sam FieldMIDNorwich City~48 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.18/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.54/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack StaceyDEF~54 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.83/90 over 77 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 77 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ruairi McConvilleDEF~72 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~6 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.12/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.29/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.04/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ben WilmotDEF~85 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.67/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 73 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aaron CresswellDEF~80 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.35/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ben GibsonDEF~72 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucien MahovoDEF~52 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Benjamin Joshua ChriseneDEF~52 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Errol Mundle-SmithFWD~17 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~17 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.94/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.43/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.97/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.