Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Sassuolo v Torino · Serie A · Saturday 29 August at 17:30 · 208 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Alberto PaleariGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.87/90 over 30 apps → model prices 3.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Arijanet MurićGKSassuolo~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.76/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Domenico BerardiFWD~76 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.81/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.99/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.60/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.59/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrea PinamontiFWD~72 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.57/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.71/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.07/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Armand LaurienteFWD~69 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.85/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.52/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.56/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.70/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giovanni Pablo SimeoneFWDTorino~70 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.73/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.89/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.14/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Che AdamsFWD~66 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.08/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.63/90 over 69 apps → model prices 2.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kristian ThorstvedtMID~77 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.41/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.59/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.51/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Duván Esteban Zapata BangueraFWD~49 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.86/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.61/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.12/90 over 35 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ismael KonéMIDSassuolo~79 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.31/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.79/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.80/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cesare CasadeiMID~63 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.43/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.14/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.71/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nemanja MatićMID~79 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.21/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nikola VlašićMID~77 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.54/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Saúl Basilio Coco-Bassey OubiñaDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Valentino LazaroMID~72 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.49/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Guillermo Alfonso Maripán LoaysaDEF~82 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ardian IsmajliDEF~76 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.20/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gvidas GineitisMID~54 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.75/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.40/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.81/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.80/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam MasinaDEF~65 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.42/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.42/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.51/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.85/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emirhan İlkhanMID~54 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.68/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.70/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.85/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.12/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.42/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sebastian WalukiewiczDEFSassuolo~84 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.02/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.62/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.20/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.63/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zakaria AboukhlalFWD~34 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.19/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.66/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.01/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.46/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.42/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.83/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jay IdzesDEF~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.29/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rafael Obrador BurgueraDEF~70 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.60/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.51/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ivan IlićMID~49 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.37/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.75/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcus Holmgren PedersenDEF~60 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.20/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ulisses Alexandre Garcia LopesDEF~73 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.15/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.62/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Niels NkounkouDEF~32 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 5.54/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.27/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.98/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.76/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.30/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aster VranckxMID~43 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~64 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.16/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.52/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.21/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cristiano BiraghiDEF~58 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alieu Eybi NjieFWD~22 min · starts 6%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~22 minutes: starts 6% of his matches (~53 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 4.78/90 over 31 apps → model prices 3.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.17/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.31/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 6.84/90 over 31 apps → model prices 3.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.19/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sandro KulenovicFWDTorino~23 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.69/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 8.84/90 over 13 apps → model prices 3.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 6.37/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.67/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 7.46/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cristian VolpatoMID~44 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.86/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.45/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.10/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.44/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.45/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca LipaniMID~43 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.39/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.50/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.26/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrien TamezeMID~41 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.76/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh DoigDEF~64 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.59/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.38/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Woyo CoulibalyDEF~52 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fali CandéDEF~42 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.01/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.29/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca MoroFWD~14 min · starts 7%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~14 minutes: starts 7% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 3.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.65/90 over 14 apps → model prices 3.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.93/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.72/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicholas PieriniFWDSassuolo~12 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~12 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 7.68/90 over 11 apps → model prices 3.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.38/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.90/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.88/90 over 11 apps → model prices 3.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Faustino AnjorinMIDTorino~19 min · starts 7%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 7% of his matches (~59 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.47/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.86/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.72/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ali DembéléDEFTorino~25 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.12/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.61/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.44/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.38/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edoardo IannoniMID~17 min · starts 7%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~17 minutes: starts 7% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.55/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.37/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.90/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 2.12/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.