Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Monza v Udinese · Serie A · Saturday 29 August at 17:30 · 220 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Maduka OkoyeGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.98/90 over 55 apps → model prices 3.00/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.25/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.09/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Razvan SavaGK~89 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~79 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.05/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.05/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.79/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stefano TuratiGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.08/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolò ZanioloFWDUdinese~71 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.30/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 5.01/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.55/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.38/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.37/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.74/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Milan ĐurićFWD~71 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~35 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.63/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.42/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.56/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.79/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dany Mota CarvalhoFWD~68 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.00/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.46/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.51/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Keita Baldé DiaoFWD~59 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.38/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.77/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.37/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.63/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.67/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.73/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.44/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Keinan DavisFWD~60 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.93/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.85/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.47/90 over 53 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.05/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gianluca CaprariFWD~49 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.67/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.60/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.37/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.63/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.49/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Warren BondoMIDAC Milan~81 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.97/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro BiancoMID~77 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.75/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.94/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.29/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jesper KarlströmMID~87 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 73 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matteo PessinaMID~78 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~35 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.28/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.31/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel MaldiniMIDCagliari~66 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.10/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.57/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.59/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sandi LovricMIDUdinese~59 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.77/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.49/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.62/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.33/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jean-Daniel Akpa AkproMID~69 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.21/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.79/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.49/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam BuksaFWD~36 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.49/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.79/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.65/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.57/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.24/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oumar Solet BomawokoDEF~86 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thomas KristensenDEF~82 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.31/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christian KabaseleDEF~74 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.38/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Armando IzzoDEF~82 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.22/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.21/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jurgen EkkelenkampMID~63 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.30/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.46/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vakoun Issouf BayoFWD~32 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.12/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.05/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.67/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.23/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo Marí VillarDEF~86 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.02/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.21/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.53/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jakub PiotrowskiMID~52 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.77/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.60/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.63/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hassane KamaraDEF~69 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.14/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pedro Miguel Almeida Lopes PereiraDEF~77 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.34/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.84/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.26/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.65/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kingsley EhizibueDEF~67 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro ZanoliDEFUdinese~68 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lennon MillerMID~41 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.57/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.79/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.37/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.91/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.42/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrea CarboniDEF~85 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~51 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giorgos KiriakopoulosDEF~84 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~58 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.16/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.28/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.90/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patrick CiurriaMID~53 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.32/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolò BertolaDEF~63 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrea PetagnaFWD~25 min · starts 15%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 15% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.34/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 13 apps → model prices 3.03/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gaetano CastrovilliMID~50 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.44/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.08/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuele BirindelliDEF~70 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.54/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca CaldirolaDEF~63 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.88/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Idrissa GueyeFWDUdinese~21 min · starts 5%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~21 minutes: starts 5% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.63/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.35/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.81/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.74/90 over 19 apps → model prices 3.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oier Zarraga EgañaMID~29 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.62/90 over 46 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Danilo D'AmbrosioDEF~55 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.54/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.43/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rui Manuel Muati ModestoMIDUdinese~31 min · starts 17%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 17% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.97/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.31/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.56/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuele VignatoMID~27 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.53/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.08/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.28/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stefano SensiMID~23 min · starts 17%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 17% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.38/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.99/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.35/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Juan David ArizalaMID~18 min · starts 10%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~18 minutes: starts 10% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.15/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.39/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.