Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Brentford v Sunderland · Premier League · Saturday 5 September at 15:00 · 174 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Robin RoefsGKSunderland~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.11/90 over 35 apps → model prices 3.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.40/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anthony PattersonGKSunderland~91 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~91 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~91 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.15/90 over 45 apps → model prices 2.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Caoimhín KelleherGKBrentford~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.06/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.91/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Igor ThiagoFWDBrentford~75 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.25/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.98/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dango OuattaraFWDBrentford~71 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.40/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wilson IsidorFWDSunderland~57 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.69/90 over 51 apps → model prices 2.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kevin SchadeFWDBrentford~69 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.47/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patrick RobertsFWD~72 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Brian BrobbeyFWDSunderland~62 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.64/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.69/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eliezer MayendaFWD~53 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.99/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bertrand TraoréFWD~53 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.61/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.90/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Romaine MundleFWDSunderland~51 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.23/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.08/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.97/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Habib DiarraMIDSunderland~70 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.43/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.77/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chemsdine TalbiFWDSunderland~56 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.54/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.19/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.06/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Reinildo MandavaDEFSunderland~79 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.16/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.54/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.67/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikkel DamsgaardMIDBrentford~70 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.89/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.61/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.15/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chris RiggMIDSunderland~63 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.45/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.41/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Noah SadikiMIDSunderland~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.24/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Granit XhakaMIDSunderland~85 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Enzo Le FéeMIDSunderland~79 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.16/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dennis CirkinDEF~72 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.54/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.02/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.43/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michael KayodeDEFBrentford~77 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.26/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nordi MukieleDEFSunderland~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Simon AdingraFWDSunderland~47 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.67/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.03/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dan NeilMID~84 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~4 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Omar AldereteDEFSunderland~85 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~37 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.95/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yegor YarmolyukMIDBrentford~61 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.51/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Keane Lewis-PotterMIDBrentford~69 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.02/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.17/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luke O'NienDEFSunderland~79 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alan BrowneMIDSunderland~53 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.23/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.58/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Trai HumeDEFSunderland~84 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 79 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 79 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 79 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 79 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 79 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dan BallardDEFSunderland~69 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.26/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.11/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vitaly JaneltMIDBrentford~65 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mathias JensenMIDBrentford~52 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.01/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sepp van den BergDEFBrentford~85 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nathan CollinsDEFBrentford~88 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kristoffer AjerDEFBrentford~64 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aji AleseDEFSunderland~59 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.28/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rico HenryDEFBrentford~48 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.23/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lutsharel GeertruidaDEF~60 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.29/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fábio CarvalhoMIDBrentford~22 min · starts 16%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~22 minutes: starts 16% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.27/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leo HjeldeDEFSunderland~26 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~26 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~6 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.02/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.51/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ethan PinnockDEFBrentford~86 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.24/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.32/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aaron HickeyDEFBrentford~33 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.77/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yunus KonakMIDBrentford~4 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~4 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~4 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 0 apps → model prices 3.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.77/90 over 0 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.75/90 over 0 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 0 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.