Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Stoke City · Championship · Saturday 29 August at 12:30 · 206 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Viktor JohanssonGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.07/90 over 71 apps → model prices 3.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 71 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tommy SimkimGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.40/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sam JohnstoneGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.26/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José Pedro Malheiro de SáGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.63/90 over 52 apps → model prices 2.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam ArmstrongFWD~82 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.50/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sorba ThomasFWD~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.33/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.83/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Toluwalase Emmanuel ArokodareFWDWolverhampton Wanderers
Million ManhoefFWD~68 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.52/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jhon Adolfo Arias AndradeFWD~49 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.26/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yerson MosqueraDEF~81 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.43/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.45/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.74/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.11/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marshall Nyasha MunetsiMIDWolverhampton Wanderers~72 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.68/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.96/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.58/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hee-Chan HwangFWD~45 min · starts 49%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 49% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.03/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lamine CisseFWD~50 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.81/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.09/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mateus ManéMID~64 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.21/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.26/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joon-Ho BaeMID~71 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.42/90 over 78 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.28/90 over 78 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 78 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 78 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
André Trindade da Costa NetoMID~77 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.43/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.31/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Róbert BoženíkFWD~40 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.82/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.41/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.41/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tomáš RigoMID~54 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.52/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis BakerMID~76 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.42/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Milan SmitFWD~40 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.60/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sam GallagherFWD
Tatsuki SekoMID~61 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.07/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Steven N'Kemboanza Mike Christopher NzonziMID~46 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.83/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jean-Ricner BellegardeMID~48 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.51/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.72/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.17/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Angel GomesMID~39 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~58 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.48/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.05/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eric Junior BocatDEF
Ben PearsonMID
Mohammed Bosun LawalDEFStoke City~68 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.02/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
J. TchamadeuDEF~77 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ladislav KrejčíDEF
Maksym TalovierovDEF
Rodrigo Martins GomesMID~38 min · starts 34%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 34% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.53/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.19/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.40/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Santiago Ignacio Bueno SciuttoDEF
Ben WilmotDEF~85 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.63/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.68/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aaron CresswellDEF~80 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.56/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.30/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emmanuel AgbadouDEF
Ben GibsonDEF~72 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emre TezgelFWDStoke City~25 min · starts 17%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 17% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.05/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.05/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tote António GomesDEF~81 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.58/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hugo BuenoDEF~68 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pedro Henrique Cardoso de LimaDEF~28 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jackson TchatchouaDEF~59 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David Møller WolfeDEF~48 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.28/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.