Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
FC Barcelona v Rayo Vallecano · La Liga · Monday 31 August at 20:30 · 199 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Daniel Cárdenas LindezGKRayo Vallecano~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.40/90 over 10 apps → model prices 3.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.10/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Augusto Martín Batalla BargaGKRayo Vallecano~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.83/90 over 66 apps → model prices 3.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joan García PonsGKFC Barcelona~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.18/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.18/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lamine Yamal Nasraoui EbanaFWDFC Barcelona~82 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~36 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.46/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.43/90 over 63 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.95/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wojciech SzczęsnyGKFC Barcelona~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Saves: career 1.91/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.04/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Raphael Dias BelloliFWDFC Barcelona~73 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.37/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.94/90 over 58 apps → model prices 2.54/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.46/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.96/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robert LewandowskiFWD~72 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.55/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.03/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ferrán Torres GarcíaFWDFC Barcelona~51 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.99/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.97/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.37/90 over 60 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.50/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Isaac Palazón CamachoFWDRayo Vallecano~67 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.45/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.53/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.56/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pedro González LópezMIDFC Barcelona~76 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.34/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.65/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.34/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.85/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo Martín Paez GaviriaMIDFC Barcelona~45 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 4.48/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.03/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.91/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.82/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.19/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jorge De Frutos SebastiánFWDRayo Vallecano~69 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~35 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.29/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.10/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.85/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álvaro García RiveraFWDRayo Vallecano~69 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.13/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.58/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.79/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc Casadó TorrasMIDFC Barcelona~55 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.78/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.02/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.10/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.73/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel Olmo CarvajalMIDFC Barcelona~57 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.05/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.11/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.42/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pathé CissMIDRayo Vallecano~67 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.49/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.82/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.35/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.89/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Óscar Valentín Martín LuengoMIDRayo Vallecano~59 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.24/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.99/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Florian LejeuneDEFRayo Vallecano~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.48/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 73 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fermín López MarínMIDFC Barcelona~53 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.11/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.24/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.75/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.75/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Roony BardghjiFWDFC Barcelona~31 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.89/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.68/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.51/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.77/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.40/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Randy NtekjaMIDRayo Vallecano~41 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 3.81/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.75/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.14/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.48/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.52/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nobel MendyDEFRayo Vallecano~75 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.51/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.47/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Unai López CabreraMIDRayo Vallecano~56 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.03/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.43/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Frenkie de JongMIDFC Barcelona~54 min · starts 49%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 49% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.44/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.53/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josep María Chavarría PérezDEFRayo Vallecano~79 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.26/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.12/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alexandre ZurawskiFWDRayo Vallecano~44 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.30/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.96/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.76/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sergio Camello PérezFWDRayo Vallecano~44 min · starts 49%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 49% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.44/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.23/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.21/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.07/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrei Florin RatiuDEFRayo Vallecano~84 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eric García MartretDEFFC Barcelona~68 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.45/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.63/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pau Cubarsí ParedesDEFFC Barcelona~81 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.32/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.03/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jules KoundéDEFFC Barcelona~79 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.82/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alejandro Balde MartínezDEFFC Barcelona~69 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.35/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.56/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pedro Díaz FanjulMIDRayo Vallecano~52 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.62/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.42/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francisco Perez MartinezFWDRayo Vallecano~43 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.76/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.81/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.45/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gerard Gumbau GarrigaMID~35 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.69/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc Bernal CasasMIDFC Barcelona~41 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.80/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.59/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iván Balliu CampenyDEFRayo Vallecano~46 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.15/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.53/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luiz Felipe Ramos MarchiDEFRayo Vallecano~47 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.10/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gerard Martín LangreoDEFFC Barcelona~53 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.26/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andreas ChristensenDEFFC Barcelona~36 min · starts 28%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 28% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.86/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luis Alfonso Espino GarcíaDEF~31 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.74/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hector Fort GarcíaDEFFC Barcelona~35 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.46/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.20/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.45/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.70/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.