Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Preston North End v Wolverhampton Wanderers · Championship · Saturday 22 August at 15:00 · 207 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Sam JohnstoneGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.26/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José Pedro Malheiro de SáGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.63/90 over 52 apps → model prices 2.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel IversenGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.08/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.86/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David CornellGK~83 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.45/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam ArmstrongFWD~82 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.98/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.61/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Milutin OsmajićFWD~60 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.01/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.79/90 over 62 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.46/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yerson MosqueraDEF~81 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.46/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.09/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.51/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Toluwalase Emmanuel ArokodareFWDWolverhampton Wanderers~43 min · starts 39%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 39% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.85/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.14/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.98/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.52/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alfie DevineMIDPreston North End~69 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.39/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.60/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.53/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Will KeaneFWD~41 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.22/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.52/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.82/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michael SmithFWD~39 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.05/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.94/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.25/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jhon Adolfo Arias AndradeFWD~49 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.12/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.74/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alistair McCannMID~76 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.78/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marshall Nyasha MunetsiMIDWolverhampton Wanderers~72 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.27/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.48/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.39/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
André Trindade da Costa NetoMID~77 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.32/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mateus ManéMID~64 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.20/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.79/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.83/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hee-Chan HwangFWD~45 min · starts 49%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 49% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.29/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.85/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.33/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrew MoranMID~52 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.77/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.94/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.79/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stefán Teitur ÞórðarsonMID~56 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.45/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.47/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jordan ThompsonMID~52 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.74/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.92/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jean-Ricner BellegardeMID~48 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.72/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.40/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.42/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mads Frøkjær-JensenMID~51 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.36/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Odeluga OffiahDEF~67 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.91/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robbie BradyMID~51 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.65/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.14/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.43/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jordan StoreyDEF~87 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 78 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Liam LindsayDEF~69 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.66/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.90/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrew HughesDEF~84 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 78 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis Jack GibsonDEF~83 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ladislav KrejčíDEF~84 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~47 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Brad PottsDEF~62 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.58/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.63/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.66/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Santiago Ignacio Bueno SciuttoDEF~73 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.28/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emmanuel AgbadouDEF~84 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~37 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Angel GomesMID~39 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~58 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Shots: career 8.11/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.12/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tote António GomesDEF~81 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.25/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pol Valentín SanchoDEF~61 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hugo BuenoDEF~68 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.97/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thierr SmallDEF~61 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.55/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.24/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pedro Henrique Cardoso de LimaDEF~28 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.45/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 9.62/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.69/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rodrigo Martins GomesMID~38 min · starts 34%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 34% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.61/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.77/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jackson TchatchouaDEF~59 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.60/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrija VukčevićDEF~44 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.09/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David Møller WolfeDEF~48 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.14/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jamal LewisDEF~43 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.07/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.