Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United · Premier League · Saturday 29 August at 17:30 · 195 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Nick PopeGKNewcastle United~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.05/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.23/90 over 55 apps → model prices 3.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonín KinskýGKTottenham Hotspur~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.08/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.62/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Guglielmo VicarioGKTottenham Hotspur~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.09/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.75/90 over 55 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dominic SolankeFWDTottenham Hotspur~76 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.28/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.26/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Richarlison de AndradeFWDTottenham Hotspur~53 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.81/90 over 29 apps → model prices 3.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.63/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joelinton Cassio Apolinário de LiraMIDNewcastle United~78 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.15/90 over 52 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.33/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.42/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mohammed KudusFWDTottenham Hotspur~81 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.19/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.68/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dejan KulusevskiMIDTottenham Hotspur~75 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.76/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.80/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.29/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James MaddisonMIDTottenham Hotspur~55 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.19/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.76/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.54/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Xavi SimonsMIDTottenham Hotspur~63 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.23/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.00/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mathys TelFWDTottenham Hotspur~51 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.71/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.19/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harvey Lewis BarnesFWDNewcastle United~53 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.78/90 over 44 apps → model prices 2.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Conor GallagherMIDTottenham Hotspur
Jacob MurphyFWDNewcastle United~59 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.36/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.82/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iyenoma Destiny UdogieDEFTottenham Hotspur~73 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.23/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.56/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nick WoltemadeFWDNewcastle United~58 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.38/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.02/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis HallDEFNewcastle United~77 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.32/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.72/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dan BurnDEFNewcastle United~84 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pedro Antonio Porro SaucedaDEFTottenham Hotspur~81 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.19/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.00/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rodrigo Bentancur ColmánMIDTottenham Hotspur~68 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.88/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pape Matar SarrMIDTottenham Hotspur~53 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.21/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.64/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wilson OdobertFWDTottenham Hotspur~46 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.65/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.21/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cristian Gabriel RomeroDEFTottenham Hotspur~80 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.91/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fabian Lukas SchärDEFNewcastle United~81 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.25/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.09/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas BergvallMIDTottenham Hotspur~44 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.72/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Djed SpenceDEFTottenham Hotspur
Valentino LivramentoDEFNewcastle United~77 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.27/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.18/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ben DaviesDEFTottenham Hotspur~73 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kevin DansoDEFTottenham Hotspur~69 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yves BissoumaMID~59 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.44/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joseph WillockMIDNewcastle United~37 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.42/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jacob RamseyMIDNewcastle United~52 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mickey van de VenDEFTottenham Hotspur~85 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.49/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yoane WissaFWDNewcastle United~27 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.47/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.74/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.56/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikey MooreFWDTottenham Hotspur~36 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.30/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.30/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.49/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Will OsulaFWDNewcastle United
Malick ThiawDEFNewcastle United~85 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anthony ElangaFWDNewcastle United~41 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.55/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.34/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.37/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sven BotmanDEFNewcastle United~68 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Archie GrayMIDTottenham Hotspur~62 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis MileyMIDNewcastle United~49 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.80/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.29/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.34/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.