Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig · Bundesliga · Saturday 5 September at 14:30 · 163 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Maarten VandevoordtGK~82 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~43 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.06/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.60/90 over 17 apps → model prices 3.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mio BackhausGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.19/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Loïs OpendaFWD~72 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.78/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.78/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
RômuloFWD~74 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.83/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.45/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jens StageMID~82 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.91/90 over 55 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Romano SchmidMID~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.62/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Justin NjinmahFWD~49 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.66/90 over 35 apps → model prices 3.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.26/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christoph BaumgartnerMID~69 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.39/90 over 51 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.13/90 over 51 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Felix AguDEF~76 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.67/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.01/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonio NusaFWD~64 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.06/90 over 44 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.28/90 over 44 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Brajan GrudaMIDRB Leipzig~58 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.57/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.91/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cameron PuertasMID~66 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.83/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.79/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marco GrüllFWD~51 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.75/90 over 41 apps → model prices 2.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.66/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Conrad HarderFWD~32 min · starts 28%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 28% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 4.04/90 over 8 apps → model prices 3.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.73/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Victor BonifaceFWD~30 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.96/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.10/90 over 3 apps → model prices 3.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jovan MilosevicFWD~37 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.50/90 over 6 apps → model prices 2.98/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.50/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Senne LynenMID~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.80/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.61/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Assan OuédraogoMID~46 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.05/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.53/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David RaumDEF~84 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.54/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Johan BakayokoFWD~39 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.09/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.17/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Niklas StarkDEF~71 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuel MbangulaFWD~45 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.94/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.47/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.35/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Keke ToppFWD~23 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.96/90 over 9 apps → model prices 2.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.13/90 over 9 apps → model prices 3.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leonardo BittencourtMID~36 min · starts 34%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 34% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.75/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.75/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ridle BakuDEF~75 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.83/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.17/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolas SeiwaldMID~76 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.15/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Willi OrbánDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Olivier DemanDEF~53 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.37/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.72/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marco FriedlDEF~84 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.81/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.23/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kevin KamplMID~55 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Julián MalatiniDEF~46 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.31/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Karim CoulibalyDEF~79 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.26/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.39/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amos PieperDEF~72 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.67/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Benjamin HenrichsDEF~39 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.98/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patrice CovicMID~23 min · starts 13%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 13% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.52/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tidiam GomisFWD~19 min · starts 12%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 12% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.23/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Castello LukebaDEF~77 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.54/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.66/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
El Chadaille BitshiabuDEF~56 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.11/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.59/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lukas KlostermannDEF~58 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.25/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Isaac SchmidtDEF~36 min · starts 32%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 32% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.34/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ezechiel BanzuziMID~24 min · starts 8%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~24 minutes: starts 8% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.26/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.26/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Max FinkgräfeDEF~39 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.42/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.62/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Skelly AlveroMID~19 min · starts 7%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 7% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.