Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Frosinone v Juventus · Serie A · Sunday 23 August at 17:30 · 116 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Mattia PerinGK~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.14/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Saves: career 1.93/90 over 14 apps → model prices 3.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michele Di GregorioGK~89 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.16/90 over 63 apps → model prices 2.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kenan YildizFWD~74 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.00/90 over 71 apps → model prices 2.43/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.07/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.73/90 over 71 apps → model prices 2.97/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 71 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Randal Kolo MuaniFWDJuventus~73 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.39/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.43/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.45/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolás Iván GonzálezFWDJuventus~64 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.77/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.93/90 over 28 apps → model prices 3.10/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.04/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.53/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.85/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dušan VlahovićFWD~57 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.75/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.07/90 over 48 apps → model prices 3.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.37/90 over 48 apps → model prices 2.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francisco Fernandes ConceiçãoFWD~61 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.68/90 over 57 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.26/90 over 57 apps → model prices 2.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.29/90 over 57 apps → model prices 3.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.23/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jonathan DavidFWD~51 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 35 apps → model prices 2.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.04/90 over 35 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.75/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.89/90 over 35 apps → model prices 3.04/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jeremie BogaFWDJuventus~45 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.23/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.51/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.72/90 over 15 apps → model prices 3.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Manuel LocatelliMID~81 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.02/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.60/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Weston McKennieMID~76 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.40/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.03/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Khéphren Thuram-UlienMID~68 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.84/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.48/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.68/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lloyd KellyDEF~85 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.53/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gleison Bremer Silva NascimentoDEF~85 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.86/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Teun KoopmeinersMID~63 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.45/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.51/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.57/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pierre Kalulu KyatengwaDEF~85 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.31/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.54/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Federico GattiDEF~64 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.18/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.71/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.90/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lois OpendaFWD~27 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.41/90 over 24 apps → model prices 3.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.37/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.21/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.10/90 over 24 apps → model prices 3.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrea CambiasoDEF~73 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.40/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edon ZhegrovaFWD~19 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.83/90 over 19 apps → model prices 3.37/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.56/90 over 19 apps → model prices 4.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.81/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.02/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fabio MirettiMID~26 min · starts 22%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~26 minutes: starts 22% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.82/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.84/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.50/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.19/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.77/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Douglas Luiz Soares de PauloMIDJuventus~27 min · starts 16%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 16% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.37/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.29/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.36/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.62/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.66/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Juan David Cabal MurilloDEF~39 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.50/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.87/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Filip KostićMID~26 min · starts 22%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~26 minutes: starts 22% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.45/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.29/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.77/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.43/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.45/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.