Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Swansea City v Watford · Championship · Tuesday 1 September at 19:45 · 214 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Egil SelvikGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.96/90 over 56 apps → model prices 3.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.09/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel BachmannGKWatford~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.09/90 over 22 apps → model prices 3.04/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lawrence VigourouxGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.01/90 over 91 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.80/90 over 91 apps → model prices 2.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 91 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 91 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Žan VipotnikFWD~59 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 86 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.94/90 over 86 apps → model prices 2.81/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.19/90 over 86 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 86 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 86 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 86 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ronald Pereira MartinsFWD~76 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 91 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.67/90 over 91 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 91 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.42/90 over 91 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 91 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 91 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ji-Sung EomFWD~59 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 81 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.69/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.62/90 over 81 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.15/90 over 81 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 81 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca KjerrumgaardFWDWatford~67 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.32/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.20/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Othmane MaammaFWD~66 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.90/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.21/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edo KayembeMID~70 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.48/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.19/90 over 81 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 81 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 81 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gonçalo Baptista FrancoMID~76 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 85 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.34/90 over 85 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.87/90 over 85 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.92/90 over 85 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.06/90 over 85 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 85 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Imran LouzaMID~84 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.79/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zeidane InoussaFWD~43 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.51/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.96/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.73/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.01/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nestory IrankundaFWD~51 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.16/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.89/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.63/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.29/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.27/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mamadou DoumbiaFWD~51 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.64/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.51/90 over 52 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.92/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Liam CullenMID~58 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 82 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 82 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.07/90 over 82 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.08/90 over 82 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.63/90 over 82 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 82 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ayotomiwa Dele-BashiruMIDWatford~74 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~7 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.95/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.59/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.79/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rocco VataFWD~46 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.03/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.54/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.76/90 over 45 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hector KyprianouMID~77 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.86/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam Uche IdahFWD~33 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.74/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.30/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.22/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kwadwo BaahFWD~42 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.53/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.68/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.81/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.78/90 over 54 apps → model prices 2.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Moussa SissokoMID~61 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.96/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marko StamenicMID~70 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.50/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.93/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.94/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.38/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nampalys MendyMID~61 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.57/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.22/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thomas InceFWD~39 min · starts 39%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 39% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.07/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.76/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.38/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oliver CooperMID~36 min · starts 34%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 34% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 5.22/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.56/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh KeyDEF~73 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.98/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pierre DwomohMID~53 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matthew PollockDEF~84 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 80 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vivaldo Leandro Semedo Moura SousaFWD~27 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 3.38/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.45/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 3.24/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jeremy NgakiaDEF~73 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.93/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc BolaDEF~78 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Melker WidellMID~41 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.71/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.20/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.42/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cameron BurgessDEF~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.51/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.31/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jay FultonMID~42 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.45/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.25/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.63/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kévin KebenDEF~68 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.20/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.03/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Benjamin CabangoDEF~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.51/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 90 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh TymonDEF~88 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.43/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 90 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan AndrewsDEF~52 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.59/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.23/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.53/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jérémy PétrisDEF~53 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.63/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.40/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.12/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James MorrisDEF~55 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.68/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.10/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leo WaltaMID~32 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~56 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.66/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.37/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.60/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.86/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edoardo BoveMID~24 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~24 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.71/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.52/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.81/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.66/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.32/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sam ParkerDEF~32 min · starts 36%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 36% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.49/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joel WardDEF~30 min · starts 20%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 20% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.81/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.83/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.