Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Real Betis v Real Madrid · La Liga · Friday 4 September at 20:00 · 187 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Kylian MbappéFWDReal Madrid~85 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.98/90 over 63 apps → model prices 3.96/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andriy LuninGKReal Madrid~90 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~90 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.07/90 over 14 apps → model prices 3.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.07/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álvaro VallesGKReal Betis~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.14/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.14/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thibaut CourtoisGKReal Madrid~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.06/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.05/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.39/90 over 62 apps → model prices 2.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
AdriánGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.80/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.20/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cucho HernándezFWDReal Betis~80 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.16/90 over 47 apps → model prices 3.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
AntonyFWDReal Betis~78 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.13/90 over 47 apps → model prices 2.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.67/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vinicius JuniorFWDReal Madrid~77 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.64/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.24/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Abde EzzalzouliFWDReal Betis~70 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.27/90 over 54 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.84/90 over 54 apps → model prices 2.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jude BellinghamMIDReal Madrid~75 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.24/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.47/90 over 51 apps → model prices 2.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.37/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giovani Lo CelsoMIDReal Betis~58 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.11/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.16/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
IscoMIDReal Betis~59 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.57/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.68/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc RocaMIDReal Betis~68 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.79/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.93/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.86/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
RodrygoFWDReal Madrid~53 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.12/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.78/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.42/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sofyan AmrabatMID~76 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.57/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Arda GülerMIDReal Madrid~54 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.48/90 over 43 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.65/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Federico ValverdeMIDReal Madrid~84 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.47/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.69/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Éder MilitãoDEFReal Madrid~74 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.37/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eduardo CamavingaMIDReal Madrid~55 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.72/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.07/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thiago PitarchMIDReal Madrid~60 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.77/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Brahim DíazFWDReal Madrid~43 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.28/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.39/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cédric BakambuFWD~30 min · starts 26%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 26% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.05/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.69/90 over 15 apps → model prices 3.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aurélien TchouaméniMIDReal Madrid~82 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.09/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sergi AltimiraMID~56 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.55/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.43/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álvaro CarrerasDEFReal Madrid~83 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~2 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo FornalsMIDReal Betis~74 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.28/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aitor RuibalFWDReal Betis~56 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.45/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Valentín GómezDEFReal Betis~67 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.51/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chimy ÁvilaFWD~30 min · starts 26%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 26% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.16/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.39/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.96/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dani CeballosMID~44 min · starts 49%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 49% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.03/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.19/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Junior FirpoDEFReal Betis~69 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.50/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.88/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rodrigo RiquelmeFWDReal Betis~32 min · starts 28%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 28% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.50/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.73/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dean HuijsenDEFReal Madrid~73 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ángel OrtizDEFReal Betis~52 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.21/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.69/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nelson DeossaMIDReal Betis~37 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.29/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.99/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.83/90 over 9 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iker LosadaFWDReal Betis~34 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.47/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Raúl AsencioDEFReal Madrid~74 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.11/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Diego LlorenteDEFReal Betis~78 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
NatanDEFReal Betis~78 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Héctor BellerínDEFReal Betis~67 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.31/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc BartraDEFReal Betis~82 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~38 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.67/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonio RüdigerDEFReal Madrid~81 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.89/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ricardo RodríguezDEF~69 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.26/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Trent Alexander-ArnoldDEFReal Madrid~55 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.35/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.51/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo GarcíaFWDReal Betis~23 min · starts 11%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 11% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.48/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.59/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.85/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ferland MendyDEFReal Madrid~64 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.63/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel CarvajalDEF~63 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.43/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.49/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
EndrickFWDReal Madrid~18 min · starts 13%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~18 minutes: starts 13% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.18/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.55/90 over 4 apps → model prices 3.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David AlabaDEF~41 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.42/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.