Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Bristol City v Portsmouth · Championship · Saturday 29 August at 15:00 · 242 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Nicolas SchmidGK~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.22/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.01/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.69/90 over 69 apps → model prices 2.95/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josef BursikGK~81 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.50/90 over 10 apps → model prices 3.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Max O’LearyGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.11/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.32/90 over 53 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emil Riis JakobsenFWD~66 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.89/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.04/90 over 44 apps → model prices 2.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh MurphyFWD~79 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.65/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.93/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.80/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.76/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Callum LangFWD~76 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.82/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.22/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.04/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.45/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.02/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Colby BishopFWD~82 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 74 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 74 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.97/90 over 74 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.70/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 74 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gustavo CaballeroFWD~64 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.17/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.34/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Scott TwineMID~68 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.99/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.72/90 over 81 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 81 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.00/90 over 81 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 81 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrian SegečićFWD~60 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.61/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.41/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.82/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Conor ChaplinFWD~62 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.38/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.65/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.30/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jason KnightMID~87 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 82 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.68/90 over 82 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 82 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 82 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 82 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 82 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sinclair ArmstrongFWD~41 min · starts 36%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 36% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.35/90 over 78 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.37/90 over 78 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.79/90 over 78 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.67/90 over 78 apps → model prices 2.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 78 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Florian BianchiniFWD~51 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.55/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.12/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.64/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yu HirakawaFWDBristol City~36 min · starts 34%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 34% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.99/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 62 apps → model prices 2.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.80/90 over 62 apps → model prices 2.81/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.40/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam RandellMID~83 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.21/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marlon PackMID~65 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.28/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.32/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ebou AdamsMID~77 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.48/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.11/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Max BirdMID~67 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.47/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.43/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sam MorsyMID~65 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~35 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.87/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.29/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andre DozzellMID~79 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.53/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.18/90 over 76 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 76 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tomi HorvatMID~57 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.72/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.76/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
John SwiftMID~57 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.22/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.70/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.65/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mackenzie KirkFWD~32 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.90/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.05/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.05/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.53/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuel John BellFWD~23 min · starts 9%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 9% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.06/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 4.25/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.03/90 over 35 apps → model prices 3.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Terry DevlinDEF~57 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.49/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe WilliamsMID~55 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.89/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Connor OgilvieDEF~86 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.42/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 77 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ross McCrorieDEF~71 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.38/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.84/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thomas WaddinghamFWD~17 min · starts 9%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~17 minutes: starts 9% of his matches (~55 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.31/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.51/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.50/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 25.80/90 over 11 apps → model prices 4.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 8.43/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jacob BrownFWD~33 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.85/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.96/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.35/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.76/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.57/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fally MayuluFWD~21 min · starts 16%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~21 minutes: starts 16% of his matches (~54 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.83/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.38/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.56/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.70/90 over 25 apps → model prices 3.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Regan PooleDEF~85 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~36 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.31/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Noah EileDEF~84 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~1 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.13/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cameron PringDEF~66 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.53/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.40/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.49/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robert DickieDEF~84 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.54/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luke Le RouxMID~47 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.07/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.53/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.51/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zak SwansonDEF~67 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.89/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.29/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zak VynerDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.24/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robert AtkinsonDEF~74 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.31/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harvey BlairFWD~29 min · starts 26%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 26% of his matches (~53 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.49/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.95/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.85/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.80/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
George TannerDEF~70 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.03/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Márk KosznovszkyMID~43 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos NetoDEF~72 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.96/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh KnightDEF~69 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.09/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jordan WilliamsDEFPortsmouth~61 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.17/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hayden MatthewsDEF~58 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.12/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Conor ShaughnessyDEF~59 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.45/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.17/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ibane BowatDEFPortsmouth~47 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.06/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.78/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hayden RobertsDEF~49 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; all probabilities are estimates with sampling error of roughly ±1% at this iteration count.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.