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Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano · La Liga · Saturday 15 August at 20:30 · 65 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Augusto Martín Batalla BargaGKRayo Vallecano~84 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.83/90 over 66 apps → model prices 3.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Odisseas VlachodimosGKSevilla~84 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.70/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.06/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Isaac Romero BernalFWDSevilla~71 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.45/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.28/90 over 47 apps → model prices 2.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Isaac Palazón CamachoFWDRayo Vallecano~75 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.26/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.57/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.09/90 over 53 apps → model prices 2.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ruben VargasFWDSevilla~70 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.30/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.02/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Óscar Valentín Martín LuengoMIDRayo Vallecano~73 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.03/90 over 49 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alexandre ZurawskiFWDRayo Vallecano~70 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.70/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.17/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álvaro García RiveraFWDRayo Vallecano~78 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.29/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucien AgoumeMIDSevilla~79 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.03/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jorge De Frutos SebastiánFWDRayo Vallecano~72 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~35 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.09/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Florian LejeuneDEFRayo Vallecano~84 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 73 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iván Balliu CampenyDEFRayo Vallecano~75 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.00/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Unai López CabreraMIDRayo Vallecano~67 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.25/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.43/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gabriel Alonso Suazo UrbinaDEFSevilla~76 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.22/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joaquín Martínez GaunaDEFSevilla~82 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Enrique Jesús Salas ValienteDEFSevilla~82 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrei Florin RatiuDEFRayo Vallecano~83 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.95/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.