Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Torino v AC Milan · Serie A · Sunday 23 August at 19:45 · 224 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Mike MaignanGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.79/90 over 74 apps → model prices 3.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 74 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alberto PaleariGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.87/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giovanni Pablo SimeoneFWDTorino
Rafael Alexandre Conceição LeãoFWD~67 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.84/90 over 54 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.67/90 over 54 apps → model prices 2.56/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrien RabiotMID~88 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.62/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.94/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Che AdamsFWD~66 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.18/90 over 58 apps → model prices 2.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alexis SaelemaekersMID
Santiago Tomás GiménezFWD~52 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.88/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.24/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christian PulisicFWD
Duván Esteban Zapata BangueraFWD~49 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.09/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.45/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.53/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nikola VlašićMID~77 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Saúl Basilio Coco-Bassey OubiñaDEF
Cesare CasadeiMID~63 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.82/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.37/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yunus MusahMIDAC Milan~56 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.77/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.91/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gvidas GineitisMID~54 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.47/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.44/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Youssouf FofanaMID~70 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.63/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.61/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuel Chimerenka ChukwuezeFWDAC Milan~35 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.20/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.32/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.86/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christopher NkunkuFWD
Valentino LazaroMID~72 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ruben Loftus-CheekMID~46 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.91/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.81/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.47/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luka ModrićMIDAC Milan
Koni De WinterDEF~69 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Guillermo Alfonso Maripán LoaysaDEF~82 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ivan IlićMID~49 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.87/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.66/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emirhan İlkhanMID~54 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.52/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.85/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuele RicciMID
Ardian IsmajliDEF
Strahinja PavlovićDEF~82 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pervis Josué Estupiñán TenorioDEF~55 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.56/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fikayo TomoriDEF~76 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matteo GabbiaDEF~84 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.21/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam MasinaDEF~65 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcus Holmgren PedersenDEF~60 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zakaria AboukhlalFWD~34 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.15/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francesco CamardaFWDAC Milan
Ardon JashariMID~50 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.88/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.03/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Filippo TerraccianoDEFAC Milan~41 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~6 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.65/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sandro KulenovicFWDTorino~23 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.68/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alieu Eybi NjieFWD~22 min · starts 6%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~22 minutes: starts 6% of his matches (~53 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.85/90 over 6 apps → model prices 2.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.23/90 over 6 apps → model prices 2.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.77/90 over 6 apps → model prices 2.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrien TamezeMID
Cristiano BiraghiDEF~58 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.11/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Faustino AnjorinMIDTorino
Zachary AthekameDEF
Davide BartesaghiDEF~73 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.68/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ali DembéléDEFTorino~25 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.22/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.27/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.63/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.54/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rafael Obrador BurgueraDEF~70 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Niels NkounkouDEF~32 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.