Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
AFC Bournemouth v Everton · Premier League · Saturday 29 August at 15:00 · 184 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Jordan PickfordGKEverton~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.92/90 over 76 apps → model prices 3.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 76 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Đorđe PetrovićGKAFC Bournemouth~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.87/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.05/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rayan RochaFWDAFC Bournemouth~75 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.94/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.34/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francisco Evanilson de Lima BarbosaFWDAFC Bournemouth~76 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.61/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.48/90 over 67 apps → model prices 2.54/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.03/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eli Junior KroupiFWDAFC Bournemouth~51 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.58/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.51/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.79/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.97/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iliman NdiayeFWDEverton~81 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.36/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.59/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.69/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcus TavernierMIDAFC Bournemouth~74 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.86/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.50/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.61/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Norberto Bercique Gomes BetuncalFWDEverton~46 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 4.00/90 over 67 apps → model prices 2.46/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.45/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.91/90 over 67 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David BrooksFWDAFC Bournemouth~36 min · starts 37%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 37% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.45/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.73/90 over 60 apps → model prices 3.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.57/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amine AdliFWDAFC Bournemouth~35 min · starts 32%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 32% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.69/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.24/90 over 31 apps → model prices 3.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.52/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.31/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
A. ScottMIDAFC Bournemouth~63 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.12/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.80/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.10/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.22/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kiernan Dewsbury-HallMIDEverton~85 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.59/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.92/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.35/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thiemo BarryFWDEverton~50 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.41/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.84/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.33/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Justin KluivertMIDAFC Bournemouth~61 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.50/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.48/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.18/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.89/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Idrissa Gana GueyeMID~82 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.91/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James GarnerMIDEverton~85 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.31/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam SmithDEFAFC Bournemouth~57 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.44/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.44/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.07/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tyler AdamsMIDAFC Bournemouth~71 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.42/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.89/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan ChristieMIDAFC Bournemouth~57 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.67/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.70/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.96/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.81/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis CookMIDAFC Bournemouth~72 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tim IroegbunamMIDEverton~44 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.63/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.95/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.72/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.91/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.71/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James HillDEFAFC Bournemouth~66 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.70/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.19/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Saves: career 0.84/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harrison ArmstrongMIDEverton~36 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.09/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.85/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.42/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 2.05/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Merlin RöhlMIDEverton~43 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.48/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.16/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.91/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrien TruffertDEFAFC Bournemouth~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.09/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James TarkowskiDEFEverton~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.21/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos AlcarazMIDEverton~41 min · starts 37%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 37% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.87/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.45/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.44/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.90/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.36/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vitalii MykolenkoDEFEverton~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tyler DiblingFWDEverton~25 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.67/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.85/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.02/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.11/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jake O´BrienDEFEverton~82 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Enes ÜnalFWDAFC Bournemouth~14 min · starts 5%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~14 minutes: starts 5% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 2.47/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.30/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 6.98/90 over 40 apps → model prices 4.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.92/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michael KeaneDEFEverton~77 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.54/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jarrad BranthwaiteDEFEverton~80 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.38/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bafodé DiakitéDEFAFC Bournemouth~71 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~5 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.06/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tyrique GeorgeFWDEverton~19 min · starts 9%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 9% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.95/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.20/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.09/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Julian AraujoDEFAFC Bournemouth~42 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.21/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nathan PattersonDEFEverton~34 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.65/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.76/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel JebbisonFWDAFC Bournemouth~8 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~8 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.49/90 over 16 apps → model prices 4.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.99/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.73/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; all probabilities are estimates with sampling error of roughly ±1% at this iteration count.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.