Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Brighton & Hove Albion v Aston Villa · Premier League · Sunday 23 August at 14:00 · 176 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Damián Emiliano MartínezGKAston Villa~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.98/90 over 69 apps → model prices 3.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bart VerbruggenGKBrighton & Hove Albion~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.07/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.66/90 over 74 apps → model prices 2.49/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 74 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kaoru MitomaFWDBrighton & Hove Albion~71 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.65/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.10/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.39/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.99/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.00/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Georginio RutterFWDBrighton & Hove Albion~58 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.52/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.82/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.84/90 over 60 apps → model prices 2.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.26/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yankuba MintehFWDBrighton & Hove Albion~64 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.70/90 over 66 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.55/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ollie WatkinsFWDAston Villa~73 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.40/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.83/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pascal GroßMIDBrighton & Hove Albion~86 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.18/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.29/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos Baleba Noom QuomahMIDBrighton & Hove Albion~67 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.75/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.27/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.93/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
John McGinnMIDAston Villa~69 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.68/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.67/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.69/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.91/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.48/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Boubacar KamaraMIDAston Villa~72 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.32/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Diego Alexander Gómez AmarillaMIDBrighton & Hove Albion~55 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.51/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.04/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.63/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack HinshelwoodMIDBrighton & Hove Albion~68 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.83/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.96/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.49/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yasin Abbas AyariMIDBrighton & Hove Albion~62 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.70/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.52/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.20/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Evann GuessandFWDAston Villa~45 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.94/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.55/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.86/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.91/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matthew O'RileyMIDBrighton & Hove Albion~43 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.94/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.83/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.67/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.08/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leon Bailey ButlerFWDAston Villa~43 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.98/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.07/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.58/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emiliano BuendíaFWDAston Villa~39 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.11/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 5.24/90 over 48 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.34/90 over 48 apps → model prices 2.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.35/90 over 48 apps → model prices 2.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.55/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amadou Zeund Georges Mvom OnanaMIDAston Villa~67 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.39/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.54/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.91/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lamar BogardeMIDAston Villa~42 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.89/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.28/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.57/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.05/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ezri Konsa NgoyoDEFAston Villa~88 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.44/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.32/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.30/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mats WiefferDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~57 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.34/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.49/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.33/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matty CashDEFAston Villa~82 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~39 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.31/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ferdi Erenay KadıoğluDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~82 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.33/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.82/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Olivier BoscagliDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~67 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 7.50/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Igor Julio dos Santos de PauloDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~74 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~41 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.06/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ian MaatsenDEFAston Villa~46 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.39/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.18/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.94/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.43/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maxim De CuyperDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~47 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.18/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.92/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.36/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Evan FergusonFWDBrighton & Hove Albion~19 min · starts 15%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 15% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.43/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.87/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.25/90 over 13 apps → model prices 3.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Charalampos KostoulasFWDBrighton & Hove Albion~17 min · starts 10%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~17 minutes: starts 10% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 4.48/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.51/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.36/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.64/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 2.76/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.62/90 over 21 apps → model prices 3.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tyrone MingsDEFAston Villa~79 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.51/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kevin Oghenetega Tamaraebi Bakumo-AbrahamFWDAston Villa~23 min · starts 17%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 17% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.67/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.47/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.52/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.61/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis DunkDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~85 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.38/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pau Francisco TorresDEFAston Villa~82 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.34/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.56/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas DigneDEFAston Villa~67 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.58/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.46/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ross BarkleyMIDAston Villa~35 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.15/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.17/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Victor Nilsson LindelöfDEFAston Villa~56 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~5 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.09/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.45/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.07/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.