Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Chelsea v Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League · Sunday 30 August at 14:00 · 188 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Bart VerbruggenGKBrighton & Hove Albion~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.07/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.66/90 over 74 apps → model prices 3.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 74 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cole PalmerMIDChelsea~82 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.71/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.48/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.33/90 over 61 apps → model prices 3.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robert Lynch SanchezGKChelsea~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.06/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.92/90 over 66 apps → model prices 2.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Filip JörgensenGKChelsea~84 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~54 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.10/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.10/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.72/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolas JacksonFWDChelsea~75 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~40 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.04/90 over 30 apps → model prices 3.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
João Pedro Junqueira de JesusFWDChelsea
Enzo Jeremías FernándezMIDChelsea~84 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.47/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.86/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pedro Lomba NetoFWDChelsea~71 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.93/90 over 62 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Moisés Isaac Caicedo CorozoMIDChelsea~87 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.81/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.67/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 71 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Liam DelapFWDChelsea~39 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.42/90 over 14 apps → model prices 3.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.24/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.74/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira GonçalvesFWDChelsea~39 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~55 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.79/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Georginio RutterFWDBrighton & Hove Albion~58 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.11/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.14/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Diego Alexander Gómez AmarillaMIDBrighton & Hove Albion~55 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.64/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.79/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kaoru MitomaFWDBrighton & Hove Albion~71 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.74/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos Baleba Noom QuomahMIDBrighton & Hove Albion~67 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.44/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.31/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wesley FofanaDEFChelsea~74 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.47/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc Guiu PazFWDChelsea~29 min · starts 9%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 9% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.42/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.83/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.92/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.92/90 over 4 apps → model prices 3.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mats WiefferDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~57 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.02/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack HinshelwoodMIDBrighton & Hove Albion
Levi Samuels ColwillDEFChelsea~89 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.61/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yasin Abbas AyariMIDBrighton & Hove Albion~62 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.52/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yankuba MintehFWDBrighton & Hove Albion~64 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pascal GroßMIDBrighton & Hove Albion~86 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.01/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ferdi Erenay KadıoğluDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~82 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Benoît Badiashile MukinayiDEFChelsea~62 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jamie Bynoe-GittensFWDChelsea~31 min · starts 31%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 31% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.27/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.01/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Roméo LaviaMIDChelsea~42 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.52/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Reece JamesDEFChelsea~63 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.01/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matthew O'RileyMIDBrighton & Hove Albion~43 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.87/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Igor Julio dos Santos de PauloDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~74 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~41 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.09/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Olivier BoscagliDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~67 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Malo GustoDEFChelsea~63 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maxim De CuyperDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~47 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jorrel HatoDEFChelsea~52 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.43/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.26/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joshua Kofi AcheampongDEFChelsea
Charalampos KostoulasFWDBrighton & Hove Albion
Evan FergusonFWDBrighton & Hove Albion~19 min · starts 15%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 15% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.93/90 over 2 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 2 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis DunkDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~85 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.65/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.41/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oluwatosin AdarabioyoDEFChelsea~58 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.