Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
FSV Mainz 05 v Paderborn · Bundesliga · Saturday 29 August at 14:30 · 111 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Phillip TietzFWD~85 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.28/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.62/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.46/90 over 19 apps → model prices 3.98/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sheraldo BeckerFWD~68 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.78/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.81/90 over 14 apps → model prices 4.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel BatzGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.05/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.33/90 over 21 apps → model prices 3.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robin ZentnerGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.08/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.06/90 over 42 apps → model prices 3.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Benedict HollerbachFWD~63 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.43/90 over 14 apps → model prices 4.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.33/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.90/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.77/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nadiem AmiriMID~82 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.97/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.26/90 over 56 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Paul NebelMID~73 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.43/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.85/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jae-Sung LeeMID~80 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.25/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kaishu SanoMID~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.46/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.65/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Arnaud NordinFWD~29 min · starts 26%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 26% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 6.15/90 over 19 apps → model prices 3.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.84/90 over 19 apps → model prices 4.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nelson Felix Patrick WeiperFWD~27 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.00/90 over 47 apps → model prices 2.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 47 apps → model prices 2.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.58/90 over 47 apps → model prices 4.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dominik KohrDEF~82 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.43/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.67/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.51/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.66/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stefan BellDEF~69 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~40 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.94/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.29/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.54/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.69/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anthony CaciDEF~75 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kacper PotulskiDEF~71 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.76/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.09/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.35/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Philipp MweneDEF~77 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Danny Vieira da CostaDEF~80 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.51/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andreas Hanche-OlsenDEF~61 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.83/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.24/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sota KawasakiMID~30 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.09/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maxim LeitschDEF~49 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.78/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.10/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lennard Patrick MaloneyMID~20 min · starts 15%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~20 minutes: starts 15% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 2.78/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.03/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.89/90 over 26 apps → model prices 3.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Silvan WidmerDEF~43 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.68/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nikolas VeratschnigDEF~28 min · starts 22%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 22% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.45/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.01/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.