Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
VfB Stuttgart v FC Köln · Bundesliga · Friday 4 September at 19:30 · 158 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Deniz UndavFWD~71 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.35/90 over 47 apps → model prices 4.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marvin SchwäbeGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.79/90 over 34 apps → model prices 3.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alexander NübelGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.85/90 over 68 apps → model prices 2.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ermedin DemirovicFWD~57 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.67/90 over 41 apps → model prices 3.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.62/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bilal El KhannoussMID~65 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.73/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jakub KamińskiFWD~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.67/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.63/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ragnar AcheFWD~59 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.61/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.83/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.48/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jamie LewelingFWD~69 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.58/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.72/90 over 49 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Said El MalaFWD~58 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.01/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.00/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chris FührichFWD~56 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.34/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.90/90 over 49 apps → model prices 2.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.34/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tiago TomásFWD~38 min · starts 37%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 37% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.34/90 over 12 apps → model prices 3.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.30/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eric MartelMID~83 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.80/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Atakan KarazorMID~75 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.86/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Angelo StillerMID~83 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.49/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marius BülterFWD~50 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.07/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.62/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jan ThielmannFWD~60 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.61/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.70/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jeff ChabotDEF~79 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.72/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Badredine BouananiFWD~33 min · starts 36%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 36% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.22/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.25/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joël SchmiedDEF~68 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.43/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tom KraußMID~69 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Linton MainaFWD~42 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessio Castro-MontesMID~48 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.51/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.90/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maximilian MittelstädtDEF~74 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.69/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nikolas NarteyMID~45 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.12/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.68/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.44/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rav van den BergDEF~81 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~41 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.17/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.34/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.67/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca WaldschmidtFWD~28 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~61 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.18/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.17/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sebastian SebulonsenDEF~81 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~35 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.40/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.12/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chema AndrésMID~52 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.90/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josha VagnomanDEF~65 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.92/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Denis HuseinbasicMID~49 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.11/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lorenz AssignonDEF~46 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ísak JóhannessonMID~59 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jahmai Simpson-PuseyDEF~79 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.39/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Finn JeltschDEF~65 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.21/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ramon HendriksDEF~57 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.25/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leonidas StergiouDEF~66 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~1 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.09/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Youssoupha NiangFWD~19 min · starts 20%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 20% of his matches (~61 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.49/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.23/90 over 2 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.72/90 over 2 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 2 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pascal StenzelDEF~34 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.50/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.76/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca JaquezDEF~61 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.25/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cenk ÖzkacarDEF~72 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.25/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.51/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Florian KainzMID~19 min · starts 13%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 13% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.19/90 over 2 apps → model prices 2.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 2 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.