Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Elversberg v Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga · Saturday 29 August at 14:30 · 106 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Mark FlekkenGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.43/90 over 24 apps → model prices 3.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.18/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Janis BlaswichGK~85 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Saves: career 4.09/90 over 11 apps → model prices 3.98/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patrik SchickFWD~63 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.35/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.44/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.32/90 over 59 apps → model prices 3.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Montrell Amare CulbreathFWD~62 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 12 apps → model prices 3.39/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.69/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ernest PokuFWD~51 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.35/90 over 29 apps → model prices 3.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.26/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.41/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nathan TellaFWD~51 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.94/90 over 44 apps → model prices 2.04/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.76/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.87/90 over 44 apps → model prices 3.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christian Michel KofaneFWD~43 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 3.18/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.53/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.67/90 over 29 apps → model prices 3.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.32/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Martin TerrierFWD~38 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.33/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.84/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.35/90 over 33 apps → model prices 3.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.35/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ibrahim MazaMID~66 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.75/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.73/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.87/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Malik TillmanMID~58 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.15/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.12/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.92/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.66/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robert AndrichMID~76 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.65/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jarell QuansahDEF~82 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.70/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.36/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aleix García SerranoMID~68 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.94/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.29/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.29/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Arthur Augusto de Matos SoaresDEF~47 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.16/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.71/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.30/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edmond Fayçal TapsobaDEF~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.87/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.14/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.21/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eliesse Ben SeghirFWD~25 min · starts 20%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 20% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.94/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.86/90 over 10 apps → model prices 4.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.44/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.05/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.54/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Exequiel Alejandro PalaciosMID~54 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.21/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.45/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.46/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ignacio Ezequiél Agustín Fernández CarballoMID~50 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.88/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.97/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.98/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jonas HofmannMID~40 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.18/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.99/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.81/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Loïc BadéDEF~72 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.25/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas Vázquez IglesiasDEF~40 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jeanuel BelocianDEF~28 min · starts 31%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 31% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.94/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.