Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Coventry City v Hull City · Premier League · Saturday 29 August at 15:00 · 182 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Ivor PandurGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 92 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.92/90 over 92 apps → model prices 3.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 92 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Haji WrightFWDCoventry City~69 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.06/90 over 54 apps → model prices 3.61/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carl RushworthGKCoventry City~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.23/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.60/90 over 46 apps → model prices 2.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oliver Nnonyelu DovinGKCoventry City~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.48/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.11/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack RudoniMIDCoventry City~78 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.13/90 over 67 apps → model prices 2.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.10/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Brandon Thomas-AsanteFWDCoventry City~49 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.92/90 over 39 apps → model prices 3.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ellis SimmsFWDCoventry City~46 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.96/90 over 43 apps → model prices 3.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Victor Torp OvergaardMIDCoventry City~59 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.43/90 over 53 apps → model prices 2.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ogochukwu Onyeka FrankMIDCoventry City~73 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.90/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.70/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.54/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ephron Mason-ClarkMIDCoventry City~65 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.11/90 over 62 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.82/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.93/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oliver McBurnieFWDHull City~79 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matty CrooksMIDHull City~69 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.23/90 over 43 apps → model prices 2.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.05/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.42/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mohamed Elbachir BelloumiFWDHull City~56 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.95/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tatsuhiro SakamotoFWDCoventry City~67 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.68/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.39/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh EcclesMIDCoventry City~53 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.58/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.98/90 over 45 apps → model prices 2.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Liam MillarFWDHull City~57 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.33/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bobby ThomasDEFCoventry City~89 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.20/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 73 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewie CoyleDEFHull City~84 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.39/90 over 83 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 83 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ben SheafMID~72 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.13/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Charlie HughesDEFHull City~85 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Liam KitchingDEFCoventry City~87 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joel LatibeaudiereDEFCoventry City~80 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matthew James JacobDEFHull City~48 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.97/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joel Tshisanga NdalaFWD~46 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.06/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.82/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kasey PalmerMID~38 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.56/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.17/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mason BurstowFWDHull City~31 min · starts 26%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 26% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.79/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.34/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
John LundstramMID~48 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Abdülkadir ÖmürMIDHull City~54 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.38/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Milan van EwijkDEFCoventry City~88 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 90 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Darko GyabiMIDHull City~35 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.14/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.56/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matt GrimesMIDCoventry City~89 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.52/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amir HadžiahmetovićMID~58 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.11/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Regan SlaterMIDHull City~72 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 76 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oluwasemilogo Adesewo Ibidapo AjayiDEFHull City~76 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.71/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cody DramehDEFHull City~61 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jay DasilvaDEFCoventry City~74 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.81/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis KoumasFWD~35 min · starts 22%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 22% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jake BidwellDEFCoventry City~63 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Enis DestanFWDHull City~24 min · starts 22%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~24 minutes: starts 22% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.23/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Paddy McNairDEFHull City~51 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
John EganDEFHull City~79 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.54/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Babajide David AkintolaFWDHull City~25 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~58 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.19/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.25/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.63/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jamie AllenMID~35 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.92/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luke WoolfendenDEFCoventry City~63 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.53/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan GilesDEFHull City~72 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.40/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.43/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kieran DowellMIDHull City~19 min · starts 7%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 7% of his matches (~61 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kaine KesslerDEFCoventry City~27 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.70/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.98/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.