Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Inter v Napoli · Serie A · Saturday 5 September at 17:00 · 189 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Lautaro MartínezFWD~78 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.65/90 over 58 apps → model prices 3.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.69/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.65/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vanja Milinković-SavićGKNapoli~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.95/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.25/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex MeretGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.11/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Saves: career 1.85/90 over 45 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josep MartínezGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.20/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.10/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yann SommerGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.06/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.25/90 over 66 apps → model prices 2.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcus ThuramFWD~69 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.82/90 over 51 apps → model prices 2.73/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.60/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Scott McTominayMID~86 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.80/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.09/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pio EspositoFWD~45 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.52/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.49/90 over 18 apps → model prices 3.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hakan ÇalhanoğluMID~71 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.33/90 over 47 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.61/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rasmus HøjlundFWD~84 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.74/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.51/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Federico DimarcoDEF~72 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.24/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro BastoniDEF~77 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonio VergaraMID~51 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~7 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.45/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.91/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.53/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alisson SantosFWD~60 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.46/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.96/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Romelu LukakuFWD~71 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.93/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.11/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Juan JesusDEF~71 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.62/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.20/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.24/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giovanni Di LorenzoDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro BuongiornoDEF~81 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.31/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kevin De BruyneMID~65 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~41 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.56/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stanislav LobotkaMID~80 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matteo PolitanoFWD~71 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.78/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolò BarellaMID~75 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.42/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Frank AnguissaMID~78 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.46/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amir RrahmaniDEF~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Henrikh MkhitaryanMID~64 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.86/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matteo DarmianDEF~58 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.47/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Petar SučićMID~53 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.19/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.24/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mathías OliveraDEF~66 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Manuel AkanjiDEF~86 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Noa LangFWDNapoli~37 min · starts 39%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 39% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.17/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.67/90 over 9 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.33/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sam BeukemaDEF~70 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ange-Yoan BonnyFWD~34 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.68/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.01/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lorenzo LuccaFWDNapoli~25 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.49/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.06/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.55/90 over 4 apps → model prices 3.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yann BisseckDEF~71 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.18/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.61/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David NeresFWD~50 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.59/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Davide FrattesiMID~34 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.20/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.20/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Benjamin PavardDEFInter~70 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.51/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francesco AcerbiDEF~75 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.21/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Piotr ZielinskiMID~51 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.30/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kristjan AsllaniMIDInter~46 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.65/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.59/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.26/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eljif ElmasMID~54 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.33/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
GiovaneFWD~28 min · starts 17%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 17% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.96/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.60/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Billy GilmourMID~46 min · starts 49%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 49% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.02/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.83/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos AugustoDEF~54 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.16/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stefan de VrijDEF~65 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.54/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.39/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luis HenriqueMID~54 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.30/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andy DioufMID~25 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.10/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leonardo SpinazzolaDEF~58 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.42/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.86/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pasquale MazzocchiDEF~28 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cyril NgongeFWDNapoli~12 min · starts 6%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~12 minutes: starts 6% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.18/90 over 1 apps → model prices 2.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.99/90 over 1 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.85/90 over 1 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 1 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.