Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Charlton Athletic v Preston North End · Championship · Saturday 29 August at 15:00 · 208 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Daniel IversenGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.86/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.08/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David CornellGK~83 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.45/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.92/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thomas KaminskiGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.89/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.15/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tyreece CampbellFWD~66 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.52/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.81/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.97/90 over 45 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Miles LeaburnFWD~53 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.19/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.88/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.80/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.58/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Milutin OsmajićFWD~60 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.46/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.79/90 over 62 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.01/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Charlie KelmanFWD~47 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.04/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.55/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robert ApterFWD~45 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.27/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.48/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.86/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.12/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sonny CareyMID~74 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.71/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.37/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Greg DochertyMID~76 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.94/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.35/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.50/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alfie DevineMIDPreston North End~69 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.39/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.53/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.60/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Will KeaneFWD~41 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.22/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.82/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michael SmithFWD~39 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.25/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.05/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.94/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alistair McCannMID~76 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.78/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Conor CoventryMID~73 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.03/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.63/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matt GoddenFWD~27 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.70/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.42/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 6.10/90 over 11 apps → model prices 3.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Karoy AndersonMID~54 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.25/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amari'i BellDEF~80 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.47/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.12/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.61/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mads Frøkjær-JensenMID~51 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.36/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrew MoranMID~52 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.79/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.94/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.77/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jordan ThompsonMID~52 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.74/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.92/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stefán Teitur ÞórðarsonMID~56 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.47/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.45/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kayne RamseyDEF~81 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lloyd JonesDEF~86 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~1 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Liam LindsayDEF~69 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.90/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.66/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrew HughesDEF~84 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 78 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Odeluga OffiahDEF~67 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.91/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ibrahim FullahMID~32 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 10.47/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.91/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jordan StoreyDEF~87 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 78 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robbie BradyMID~51 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.14/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.65/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.43/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis Jack GibsonDEF~83 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James BreeDEF~80 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Brad PottsDEF~62 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.63/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.66/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.58/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luke BerryMID~31 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.51/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.88/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.29/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.14/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.29/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe Rankin-CostelloDEF~35 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 3.50/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.91/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.73/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.59/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harvey KnibbsMID~25 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~56 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.11/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.58/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.55/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 2.79/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luke ChambersDEF~69 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.49/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pol Valentín SanchoDEF~61 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Reece BurkeDEF~56 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.70/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thierr SmallDEF~61 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.24/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.55/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Macaulay GillespheyDEF~59 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.64/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrija VukčevićDEF~44 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.09/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jamal LewisDEF~43 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.07/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.