Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Celta de Vigo v Osasuna · La Liga · Sunday 16 August at 20:30 · 179 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Sergio Herrera PirónGKOsasuna~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.05/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.24/90 over 74 apps → model prices 3.39/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 74 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ionuț Andrei RaduGKCelta de Vigo~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.04/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ante BudimirFWDOsasuna
Aimar OrozMIDOsasuna
Moriba Kourouma KouroumaMIDCelta de Vigo~67 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.25/90 over 54 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.02/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas Torró MarsetMIDOsasuna~77 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.05/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.91/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ferran Jutlgà BlancFWDCelta de Vigo~55 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.63/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.39/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Borja Iglesias QuintasFWDCelta de Vigo~54 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.58/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.05/90 over 50 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iago Aspas JuncalFWDCelta de Vigo~47 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.12/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.50/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yoel Lago AmilDEFCelta de Vigo
Pablo Durán FernándezFWDCelta de Vigo
Flavien-Enzo BoyomosDEFOsasuna~86 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.22/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alejandro Catena MarugánDEFOsasuna~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jon Moncayola TollarMIDOsasuna
Williot SwedbergFWDCelta de Vigo
Valentin RosierDEFOsasuna
Jorge Herrando OrozDEFOsasuna~65 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.25/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rubén García SantosFWDOsasuna~66 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.08/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.38/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Javier Rodríguez GalianoDEFCelta de Vigo~74 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Miguel Román GonzálezMIDCelta de Vigo~69 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.29/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Damián Rodríguez SousaMIDCelta de Vigo~57 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.71/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iker Muñoz CamerosMIDOsasuna~37 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.87/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.72/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.01/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francisco José Beltrán PeinadoMID
Hugo Álvarez AntúnezFWDCelta de Vigo~54 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.06/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcos Alonso MendozaDEFCelta de Vigo~86 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Javier Rueda GarcíaDEFCelta de Vigo~54 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.42/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carl StarfeltDEFCelta de Vigo~80 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.19/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Abel Bretones CruzDEFOsasuna~59 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sergio Carreira VilariñoDEFCelta de Vigo~76 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Raul Moro PrescoliFWDOsasuna
Jones El-AbdellaouiFWDCelta de Vigo~30 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.27/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.64/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.21/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Raúl García de HaroFWDOsasuna
Moisés Gómez BordonadoMIDOsasuna~39 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.29/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Asier Osambela LarrayaMIDOsasuna
Manuel Fernández ArroyoDEFCelta de Vigo~54 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.25/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos Domínguez CáceresDEFCelta de Vigo
Enrique Barja AfonsoFWDOsasuna~18 min · starts 12%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~18 minutes: starts 12% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.34/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.78/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.45/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.23/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.