Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Udinese v Como · Serie A · Saturday 22 August at 17:30 · 232 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Jean ButezGK~89 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~45 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.44/90 over 57 apps → model prices 2.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maduka OkoyeGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.98/90 over 55 apps → model prices 2.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.25/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.09/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Razvan SavaGK~89 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~79 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.05/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.79/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolò ZanioloFWDUdinese~71 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.30/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 5.01/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.66/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.74/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.38/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.37/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Assane Diao DiaouneFWD~73 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~42 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.15/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.08/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.58/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Keinan DavisFWD~60 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.85/90 over 53 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.47/90 over 53 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.93/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.05/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alieu FaderaFWDComo~59 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.31/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.40/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.09/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.81/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.75/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolás Paz MartínezMID~80 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.62/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.85/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.37/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jayden AddaiFWD~57 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.52/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.70/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.08/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.70/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anastasios DouvikasFWD~56 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.45/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.22/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.78/90 over 51 apps → model prices 2.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.06/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jesús Rodríguez CaraballoFWD~56 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.82/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.48/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.06/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álvaro Borja Morata MartínFWDComo~36 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 5.42/90 over 26 apps → model prices 3.34/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.99/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.20/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.51/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jesper KarlströmMID~87 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 73 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sandi LovricMIDUdinese~59 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.62/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.33/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.77/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.49/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maximo PerroneMID~74 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vakoun Issouf BayoFWD~32 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.12/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.23/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.05/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.66/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.67/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.96/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Martin BaturinaMID~55 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.35/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.48/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.12/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lennon MillerMID~41 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.42/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.91/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.79/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.37/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.57/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jacobo Ramón NaverosDEF~86 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.44/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.27/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.12/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas Da CunhaMID~75 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.48/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.31/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam BuksaFWD~36 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.49/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.24/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.57/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.79/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oumar Solet BomawokoDEF~86 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Diego Carlos Santos SilvaDEF~72 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.89/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thomas KristensenDEF~82 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.31/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christian KabaseleDEF~74 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.38/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jurgen EkkelenkampMID~63 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.30/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.46/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ivan SmolčićDEF~62 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.42/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.56/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alberto DossenaDEFComo~79 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.03/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edoardo GoldanigaDEF~75 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jakub PiotrowskiMID~52 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.77/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.63/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.60/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hassane KamaraDEF~69 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.14/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kingsley EhizibueDEF~67 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álex Valle GómezDEF~71 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maxence CaqueretMID~54 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.29/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.63/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.36/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.98/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro ZanoliDEFUdinese~68 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alberto Moreno PérezDEF~69 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.02/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.03/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc-Oliver KempfDEF~76 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.71/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolò BertolaDEF~63 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ignace Van Der BremptDEF~55 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.84/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolas-Gerrit KühnFWD~29 min · starts 26%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 26% of his matches (~64 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.14/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.44/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.72/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Idrissa GueyeFWDUdinese~21 min · starts 5%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~21 minutes: starts 5% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.81/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.63/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.35/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.74/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca MazzitelliMIDComo~33 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.85/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.22/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.94/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.12/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.12/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oier Zarraga EgañaMID~29 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.62/90 over 46 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sergi Roberto CarnicerMID~37 min · starts 39%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 39% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.38/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.59/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rui Manuel Muati ModestoMIDUdinese~31 min · starts 17%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 17% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.97/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.31/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.56/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stefan PoschDEFComo~27 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.72/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.64/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro GabrielloniFWDComo~11 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~11 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 4.86/90 over 15 apps → model prices 3.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 3.60/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 7.32/90 over 15 apps → model prices 3.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.52/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Juan David ArizalaMID~18 min · starts 10%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~18 minutes: starts 10% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.39/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.15/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.