Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
FC Union Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga · Saturday 29 August at 14:30 · 194 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Kaua Morais Vieira dos SantosGK~84 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~45 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.41/90 over 22 apps → model prices 3.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michael ZettererGK~90 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~85 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.95/90 over 22 apps → model prices 3.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.23/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Frederik RønnowGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.05/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.65/90 over 57 apps → model prices 2.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrej IlićFWD~67 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.08/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.94/90 over 48 apps → model prices 2.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oliver BurkeFWD~58 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 6.13/90 over 29 apps → model prices 3.27/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.81/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.54/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ilyas AnsahFWD~58 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.56/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.51/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.72/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ritsu DoanFWD~77 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.47/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.64/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.74/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jonathan BurkardtFWD~61 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.50/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.19/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ansgar KnauffFWD~51 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.94/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.67/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.26/90 over 58 apps → model prices 2.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Livan BurcuFWD~36 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.55/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.06/90 over 18 apps → model prices 3.30/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.54/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.34/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tim SkarkeFWD~32 min · starts 26%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 26% of his matches (~59 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.36/90 over 54 apps → model prices 3.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.62/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.28/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rani KhediraMIDFC Union Berlin~87 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jean Matteo BahoyaFWD~44 min · starts 49%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 49% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.45/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.52/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.33/90 over 51 apps → model prices 2.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aljoscha KemleinMID~65 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.60/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.03/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robert SkovMID~59 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.10/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.32/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.48/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
András SchaferMID~55 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.64/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.95/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.26/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.66/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.87/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ayoube Amaimouni-EchghouyabFWD~34 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.90/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.43/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.46/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.09/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.76/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leopold QuerfeldDEF~77 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.75/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Woo-Yeong JeongMID~48 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.87/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.25/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.31/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Janik HabererMID~61 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.49/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.96/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.77/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sepe Elye WahiFWD~29 min · starts 22%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 22% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 4.64/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.51/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.05/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.98/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hugo LarssonMID~73 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.59/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ellyes SkhiriMID~67 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.19/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michy Batshuayi TungaFWD~27 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~52 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.98/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 6.93/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fares ChaïbiMID~52 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.63/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.96/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.27/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marin LjubičićFWD~19 min · starts 7%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 7% of his matches (~46 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.44/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.27/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.30/90 over 15 apps → model prices 3.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.34/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robin KochDEF~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.56/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rasmus Nissen KristensenDEF~78 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.02/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Can Yılmaz UzunMID~45 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.03/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.29/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.86/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.85/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Diogo Filipe Monteiro Pinto LeiteDEF~85 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~45 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nnamdi CollinsDEF~64 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.16/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.82/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.23/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Arthur TheateDEF~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.31/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.53/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.66/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mahmoud DahoudMID~45 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.86/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.42/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.34/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oscar HøjlundMID~41 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.43/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.22/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.91/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.40/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christopher TrimmelDEF~66 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.39/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.29/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.54/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.43/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Derrick KöhnDEF~66 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.46/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.80/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mario GötzeMID~54 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.97/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tom RotheDEF~57 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.57/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.60/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.02/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.45/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stanley NsokiDEF~63 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josip JuranovićDEF~54 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.43/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.29/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.98/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex KrálMID~22 min · starts 10%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~22 minutes: starts 10% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.38/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.28/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.39/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.