Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Brighton & Hove Albion v Leeds United · Premier League · Saturday 5 September at 15:00 · 166 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Lucas PerriGKLeeds United~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.06/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.38/90 over 16 apps → model prices 3.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bart VerbruggenGKBrighton & Hove Albion~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.66/90 over 74 apps → model prices 2.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.07/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 74 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dominic Calvert-LewinFWDLeeds United~78 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.39/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel JamesFWDLeeds United~58 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.69/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.16/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gabriel GudmundssonDEFLeeds United~83 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.89/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joël PiroeFWDLeeds United~54 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.88/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.54/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Georginio RutterFWDBrighton & Hove Albion~58 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.14/90 over 43 apps → model prices 2.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.11/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Brenden AaronsonMIDLeeds United~73 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.71/90 over 74 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.97/90 over 74 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 74 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kaoru MitomaFWDBrighton & Hove Albion~71 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.74/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ethan AmpaduMIDLeeds United~85 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.62/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anton StachMIDLeeds United~82 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.62/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wilfried GnontoFWDLeeds United~43 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.12/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.00/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.23/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yankuba MintehFWDBrighton & Hove Albion~64 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Diego GómezMIDBrighton & Hove Albion~55 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.79/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.64/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Noah OkaforFWDLeeds United~56 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.02/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jayden BogleDEFLeeds United~85 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.88/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 77 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 77 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 77 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos BalebaMIDBrighton & Hove Albion~67 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.44/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.31/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mats WiefferDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~57 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.02/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack HinshelwoodMIDBrighton & Hove Albion~68 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.54/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.36/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yasin AyariMIDBrighton & Hove Albion~62 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.52/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ao TanakaMIDLeeds United~66 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.15/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.17/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James JustinDEFLeeds United~65 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.95/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ilia GruevMIDLeeds United~66 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.18/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pascal GroßMIDBrighton & Hove Albion~86 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.01/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mateo JosephFWDLeeds United~33 min · starts 28%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 28% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.51/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ferdi KadıoğluDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~82 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sean LongstaffMIDLeeds United~44 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James MilnerMID~40 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.53/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.98/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Largie RamazaniFWDLeeds United~28 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.30/90 over 6 apps → model prices 2.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 6 apps → model prices 2.04/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matt O'RileyMIDBrighton & Hove Albion~43 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.87/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jaka BijolDEFLeeds United~76 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lukas NmechaFWDLeeds United~35 min · starts 32%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 32% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.65/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Olivier BoscagliDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~67 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Igor JulioDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~74 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~41 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.09/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maxim De CuyperDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~47 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Charalampos KostoulasFWDBrighton & Hove Albion~17 min · starts 10%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~17 minutes: starts 10% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.42/90 over 3 apps → model prices 3.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe RodonDEFLeeds United~88 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 80 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack HarrisonFWD~24 min · starts 9%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~24 minutes: starts 9% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.16/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Evan FergusonFWDBrighton & Hove Albion~19 min · starts 15%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 15% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.93/90 over 2 apps → model prices 2.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 2 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sebastiaan BornauwDEFLeeds United~37 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~7 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.15/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sam ByramDEFLeeds United~38 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.00/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis DunkDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~85 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.65/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.41/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Solly MarchFWD~18 min · starts 8%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~18 minutes: starts 8% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.94/90 over 2 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.00/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.97/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 2 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.