Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Hull City v Manchester United · Premier League · Saturday 22 August at 12:30 · 223 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Senne LammensGKManchester United~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.47/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.95/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ivor PandurGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.92/90 over 92 apps → model prices 2.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 92 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 92 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matheus Santos Carneiro Da CunhaFWDManchester United
Bruno Miguel Borges FernandesMIDManchester United
Bryan MbeumoFWDManchester United~80 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.34/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oliver McBurnieFWDHull City~79 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mohamed Elbachir BelloumiFWDHull City~56 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.95/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patrick Chinazaekpere DorguDEFManchester United~60 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.54/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.80/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Benjamin ŠeškoFWDManchester United
Amad Diallo TraoréFWDManchester United~73 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.09/90 over 52 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Liam MillarFWDHull City
Matty CrooksMIDHull City~69 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.23/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.05/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.42/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcus RashfordFWDManchester United~66 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.12/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Manuel Ugarte RibeiroMIDManchester United~53 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.60/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.09/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.01/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewie CoyleDEFHull City~84 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.39/90 over 83 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 83 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos Henrique CasimiroMID
Luke ShawDEFManchester United~80 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.53/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.28/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mason MountMIDManchester United~41 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~64 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.16/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.59/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kasey PalmerMID
Mason BurstowFWDHull City
Joel Tshisanga NdalaFWD~46 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.06/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.82/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joshua ZirkzeeFWDManchester United
José Diogo Dalot TeixeiraDEFManchester United
Charlie HughesDEFHull City~85 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Noussair MazraouiDEFManchester United~67 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.18/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kobbie MainooMIDManchester United~62 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.03/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matthew James JacobDEFHull City~48 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.97/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Abdülkadir ÖmürMIDHull City~54 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.38/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lisandro MartínezDEFManchester United~79 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Regan SlaterMIDHull City~72 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 76 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis KoumasFWD~35 min · starts 22%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 22% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
John LundstramMID~48 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Darko GyabiMIDHull City~35 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.14/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.56/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amir HadžiahmetovićMID~58 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.11/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oluwasemilogo Adesewo Ibidapo AjayiDEFHull City
Cody DramehDEFHull City
Enis DestanFWDHull City
Harry MaguireDEFManchester United~68 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Babajide David AkintolaFWDHull City~25 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~58 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.25/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.19/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.63/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
John EganDEFHull City~79 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.54/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matthijs de LigtDEFManchester United~79 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.80/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.61/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Paddy McNairDEFHull City~51 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ayden HeavenDEFManchester United
Leny YoroDEFManchester United
Kieran DowellMIDHull City~19 min · starts 7%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 7% of his matches (~61 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan GilesDEFHull City~72 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.40/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.43/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.