Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Deportivo Alavés v Getafe · La Liga · Saturday 15 August at 18:30 · 85 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
David Soria SolísGKGetafe~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.64/90 over 76 apps → model prices 2.92/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.08/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 76 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonio Martínez LópezFWDDeportivo Alavés~79 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.31/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.15/90 over 46 apps → model prices 2.98/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mario Martín RielvesMIDGetafe~72 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.79/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.70/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.30/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo Ibáñez LumbrerasMIDDeportivo Alavés~73 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.60/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.60/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.36/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonio Sivera SalváGKDeportivo Alavés~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.07/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.10/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.44/90 over 70 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David Cordón ManchaDEFGetafe~73 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 3.38/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.56/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonio Blanco CondeMIDDeportivo Alavés~85 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.13/90 over 69 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.00/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Martín SatrianoFWD
Carles Aleña CastilloMIDDeportivo Alavés~77 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.85/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.23/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Abdelkabir AbqarDEFGetafe~76 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.75/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.47/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.56/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Angel Pérez HidalgoFWDDeportivo Alavés~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.91/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.12/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ramón Terrats EspacioMIDGetafe~82 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.70/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.32/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nahuel TenagliaDEFDeportivo Alavés~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.29/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Youssef Enríquez LekhedimDEFDeportivo Alavés
Djené Dakonam OrtegaDEFGetafe~81 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.18/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jonathan Castro OttoDEFDeportivo Alavés~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francisco Femenía FarDEFGetafe~77 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zaid Abner RomeroDEFGetafe~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.