Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Middlesbrough v Lincoln City · Championship · Saturday 15 August at 15:00 · 112 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Morgan WhittakerFWD~68 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.81/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.98/90 over 59 apps → model prices 3.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.56/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tommy ConwayFWD~73 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 84 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 84 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.48/90 over 84 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.19/90 over 84 apps → model prices 3.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.98/90 over 84 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 84 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Solomon BrynnGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.27/90 over 55 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dávid StrelecFWD~59 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.04/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.57/90 over 35 apps → model prices 3.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Finn AzazMID~78 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.86/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.83/90 over 47 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aidan MorrisMID~82 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 78 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.31/90 over 78 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.23/90 over 78 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 78 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuel SilveraFWD~47 min · starts 36%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 36% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.05/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.19/90 over 22 apps → model prices 3.43/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.39/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sontje HansenFWD~27 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~56 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 5.35/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.59/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.59/90 over 19 apps → model prices 3.05/90 for this match
Shots: career 11.27/90 over 19 apps → model prices 5.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Riley McGreeMID~60 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.69/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.69/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.52/90 over 45 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcus ForssFWD~27 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.97/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.77/90 over 25 apps → model prices 4.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 9.03/90 over 25 apps → model prices 3.84/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.46/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jeremy Leonel Sarmiento MoranteFWDMiddlesbrough~28 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.66/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.47/90 over 20 apps → model prices 3.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.16/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.38/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.56/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Micah HamiltonFWD~21 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~21 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.39/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.70/90 over 17 apps → model prices 4.59/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mamadou Kaly SeneFWDMiddlesbrough~25 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~58 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.62/90 over 28 apps → model prices 3.90/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.79/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.35/90 over 28 apps → model prices 3.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luke AylingDEF~80 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.83/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Callum BrittainDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.58/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adilson MalandaDEF~89 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~59 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alfie JonesDEF~86 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos NetoDEF~77 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.96/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex GilbertMID~34 min · starts 32%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 32% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.09/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.51/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.22/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.60/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.38/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuel George EdmundsonDEF~75 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leo Alexander Francis CastledineMID~29 min · starts 9%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 9% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.90/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.63/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.31/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sverre Halseth NypanMID~31 min · starts 15%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 15% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.77/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.82/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex BanguraDEF~42 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~61 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.54/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.39/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.13/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.