Bet builder

Legs are offered where at least 3 books price them inside the last 90 minutes; a 4.5% over-side margin is removed from each leg’s market probability as an estimate. Shots, shots on target, fouls, fouls won and tackles. The value board’s live calls are marked ● so you can build from legs the record is tracking.

Same-game slips priced from the market, with correlation from simulation. Each leg’s probability is what the books say — the median of every fresh bookmaker’s price on that selection, margin taken off — and legs in one match are then priced together, because they move together: a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down. 10,000 simulated matches supply that correlation and nothing else. How it works is on the methodology page.

Wrexham v Southampton · Championship · Saturday 19 September at 15:00 · 0 priced legs across 0 players · no simulation yet — same-match legs priced as independent

The books have not opened enough player props on this match yet — pick another from the strip above.

Why no bookmaker builder prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.

What “fair” means here. Player props are priced over-only, so every book’s price — and the median of them — carries the book’s margin. The fair price takes an estimated 4.5% off each leg for that and then applies the simulation’s correlation. It is an estimate built from the market’s own numbers, not a model’s opinion and not a guarantee. The correlation is trusted only within bounds: where the simulation covers fewer than two legs, lands too few joint hits, or produces a ratio outside 0.5–2.0, the slip is priced as independent and the panel says so.

Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to.